Long Range Forecast: Paramount Looks for Memorial Day Magic With MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – THE FINAL RECKONING

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Long Range Forecast — May 23, 2025

Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning | Paramount

Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $70M – $80M (3-Day); $90M – $100M (4-Day)

Ethan Hunt and company return to theaters over Memorial Day weekend in Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning—formerly titled Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part Two—the eighth film in the M:I franchise. Dead Reckoning Part One represented a dip in form for the normally reliable franchise, failing to crack $200M domestically, but the new film’s retitling could give it a boost in the minds of summer moviegoers hungry for some standalone action.

The Final Reckoning is the first M:I film to come out over Memorial Day weekend in 25 years, following in the steps of Mission: Impossible 2 ($215.4M domestic total), which opened to a three-day total of $57.8M and a four-day total of $70.8M. More recently, the franchise has staked its claim in the latter half of July, opening to $55.5M (2015’s Rogue Nation), $61.2M (2018’s Fallout), and $54.6M (2023’s Dead Reckoning). Lacking serious opening weekend competition, each of those three films easily debuted at number one. Though they all had roughly similar second-weekend drops (-48.7% for Rogue Nation, -42.3% for Fallout, -45.1% for Dead Reckoning), Dead Reckoning was quickly swallowed up at the box office during chase weeks, pushed down to spot number four in its second weekend by the blockbuster debuts of Barbie and Oppenheimer as well as the word-of-mouth behemoth Sound of Freedom, which came out a week earlier than Dead Reckoning and by week three (Dead Reckoning‘s week two) was already outgrossing it.

Topping out at $172.6M domestically, compared to Fallout‘s $220M and Rogue Nation‘s $195M, Dead Reckoning can’t be said to have drastically underperformed. Even so, with the number of major tentpoles coming out this July (including Jurassic World: Rebirth, Superman, and The Fantastic Four: First Steps), a release date closer to the beginning of summer—when Dead Reckoning won’t have nearly as much competition for premium screens—doubtless looks like a better bet to the team at Paramount. There’s a strong data point in support of that assumption: The highest-grossing Memorial Day opening of all time belongs to 2022’s Top Gun: Maverick ($126.7M 3-day domestic opening, $718.7M domestic total), like Dead Reckoning a Tom Cruise-starring actioner with a strong nostalgia factor released by Paramount.

Tracking Updates [as of April 25]