Long Range Forecast — January 23, 2026
Mercy | Amazon/MGM
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $15M – $25M
Chris Pratt stars as an innocent man accused of killing his wife in sci-fi thriller Mercy, directed by Timur Bekmambetov and co-starring Rebecca Ferguson. Initially set for theatrical release in August, Mercy was subsequently moved by distributor Amazon/MGM to mid-January, where it will be up against both holiday holdovers and a thin slate of January releases, a list that includes Greenland 2: Migration (estimated opening range: $10M – $20M) and 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple ($20M – $30M).
Our predicted range for Mercy puts it in line with two other mid-budget actioners released by Amazon MGM in Q1: January 2024’s The Beekeeper ($16.5M) and March 2025’s A Working Man ($15.5M), both starring Jason Statham. Additional comps include January action releases Flight Risk ($11.5M), 12 Strong ($15.8M), and Den of Thieves ($15.2M).
Long Range Forecast — January 30, 2026
Send Help | 20th Century Studios
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $12M – $16M
Sam Raimi directs this deserted island horror-thriller starring Rachel McAdams, vying to draw crowds in a January frame that can produce interesting mid-range hits from the genre.
The back half of January last year gave us two such mid-range hits with thriller/horror elements, albeit films that fall below our predicted range for Send Help: Lionsgate’s Flight Risk ($11.5M domestic opening) and Warner Bros.’ Companion ($9.3M). Previous female-led thrillers to hit theaters in late January include 2023’s Missing, from Sony ($9.1M) and—reaching a bit further back—Universal’s The Boy Next Door ($14.9M) in 2015.
Several of the aforementioned films, notably Companion and Missing, don’t feature anyone in their casts who has as much name recognition as McAdams, whose presence should help generate awareness among January moviegoers. In the world of Q1, mid-budget comedy/thrillers, McAdams’ Game Night—released in late February 2018 by Warner Bros.—opened to $17M before eventually topping out at $69.1M.
Tracking Updates [As Of 12/19/25]
| Release Date | Title | Predicted Opening Range | Distributor |
| 12/19 | David | $15M – $20M | Angel Studios |
| 12/19 | The SpongeBob Movie: Search for Squarepants | $25M – $30M | Paramount |
| 12/19 | The Housemaid | $20M – $25M | Lionsgate |
| 12/19 | Avatar: Fire and Ash | $100M – $120M | 20th Century Studios / Disney |
| 12/25 | Anaconda | $20M – $30M | Sony |
| 12/25 | Marty Supreme | $10M – $15M | A24 |
| 12/25 | Song Sung Blue | $10M – $15M | Focus Features |
| 1/9 | Primate | $5M – $10M | Paramount |
| 1/9 | Greenland 2: Migration | $10M – $20M | Lionsgate |
| 1/9 | I Was a Stranger | $1M – $2M | Angel Studios |
| 1/16 | 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple | $20M – $30M | Sony |
| 1/23 | Mercy | $15M – $25M | Amazon/MGM |
| 1/23 | Clicka | $4M – $7M | Sony |
| 1/30 | Send Help | $12M – $16M | 20th Century Studios / Disney |
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