Two new wide releases will see the light the weekend after the busy Independence Day frame this year, the animated The Secret Life of Pets from Universal and Fox’s Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates. BoxOffice Pro is predicting big things for The Secret Life of Pets despite the strong holdover competition for the family demo audiences, while we predict Mike & Dave will have a hard time standing out.
The Secret Life of Pets (Universal)
PROS:
– Universal is wisely using its credentials as the makers of Minions and Despicable Me to bolster its appeal.
– Very strong social media presence, especially on Facebook where it has consistently been one of the, if not the, brightest animated films of the year.
– Universal is in need of a big hit to boost its 2016 numbers and will be gunning for top dollar here with an extensive advertising campaign no doubt.
– With Zootopia performing exceptionally well earlier this year based on an original animal-animated feature film for Disney, Universal is hoping that Pets will be able to tap into the same audience and deliver.
CONS:
– Competition will be very strong for the family demographic’s dollars for Pets as it will be coming on the heels of The BFG the week before and Finding Dory three weekends before.
– Its target demographic has delivered some of the biggest hits of the year and with at least four more event films hitting the same audience between now and July 8th some fatigue might be a factor and could potentially lead to under-performance.
Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates (Fox)
PROS:
– R-Rated wedding-themed comedies have a long history of being one of the most lucrative laugher sub-genres.
– Both Anna Kendrick and Zac Efron are very recognizable leads with the film’s target audience of teens and young adults.
CONS:
– Social media numbers have been very weak across both Facebook and Twitter which is an especially worrying sign considering its trying to appeal to young adult movie-goers primarily.
– Zac Efron has not headlined a comedy to open with more than $13 million since 2009’s 17 Again (discounting Neighbors thanks to the big pull that is Seth Rogen).
Check out our complete long range forecast in the table below.
| Title | Release Date | Distributor | Opening Weekend | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Secret Life of Pets | Jul 8, 2016 | Universal | $66,000,000 | $265,000,000 |
| Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates | Jul 8, 2016 | Fox | $15,000,000 | $40,000,000 |
| The BFG | Jul 1, 2016 | Disney / DreamWorks | $31,000,000* | $85,000,000 |
| The Legend of Tarzan | Jul 1, 2016 | Warner Bros. | $23,500,000* | $50,000,000 |
| The Purge: Election Year | Jul 1, 2016 | Universal | $21,000,000* | $42,000,000 |
| The Shallows | Jun 29, 2016 | Sony / Columbia | $11,200,000* | $28,000,000 |
| Independence Day: Resurgence | Jun 24, 2016 | Fox | $68,000,000 | $175,000,000 |
| Free State of Jones | Jun 24, 2016 | STX Entertainment | $11,500,000 | $43,000,000 |
| Finding Dory | Jun 17, 2016 | Disney | $108,000,000 | $390,000,000 |
| Central Intelligence | Jun 17, 2016 | Warner Bros. / New Line | $52,000,000 | $155,000,000 |
| The Conjuring 2 | Jun 10, 2016 | Warner Bros. / New Line | $45,000,000 | $105,000,000 |
| Warcraft | Jun 10, 2016 | Universal | $35,000,000 | $78,000,000 |
| Now You See Me 2 | Jun 10, 2016 | Lionsgate / Summit | $23,000,000 | $65,000,000 |
| Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows | Jun 3, 2016 | Paramount | $53,000,000 | $145,000,000 |
| Me Before You | Jun 3, 2016 | Warner Bros. / New Line | $15,000,000 | $45,000,000 |
| Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping | Jun 3, 2016 | Universal | $10,000,000 | $25,000,000 |
| X-Men: Apocalypse | May 27, 2016 | Fox | $95,000,000* | $190,000,000 |
| Alice Through the Looking Glass | May 27, 2016 | Disney | $70,000,000* | $170,000,000 |
| The Angry Birds Movie | May 20, 2016 | Sony / Columbia | $42,000,000 | $137,000,000 |
| Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising | May 20, 2016 | Universal | $40,000,000 | $105,000,000 |
| The Nice Guys | May 20, 2016 | Warner Bros. | $17,000,000 | $75,000,000 |
* indicates a prediction for a four-day holiday weekend.
Shawn Robbins, Daniel Garris, Jesse Rifkin and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.
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