Long Range Forecast: ‘The Secret Life of Pets’ & ‘Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates’

Two new wide releases will see the light the weekend after the busy Independence Day frame this year,  the animated The Secret Life of Pets from Universal and Fox’s Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates.  BoxOffice Pro is predicting big things for The Secret Life of Pets despite the strong holdover competition for the family demo audiences, while we predict Mike & Dave will have a hard time standing out.

The Secret Life of Pets (Universal)

PROS:

– Universal is wisely using its credentials as the makers of Minions and Despicable Me to bolster its appeal.

– Very strong social media presence, especially on Facebook where it has consistently been one of the, if not the, brightest animated films of the year.

– Universal is in need of a big hit to boost its 2016 numbers and will be gunning for top dollar here with an extensive advertising campaign no doubt.

– With Zootopia performing exceptionally well earlier this year based on an original animal-animated feature film for Disney, Universal is hoping that Pets will be able to tap into the same audience and deliver.

CONS:

– Competition will be very strong for the family demographic’s dollars for Pets as it will be coming on the heels of The BFG the week before and Finding Dory three weekends before.

– Its target demographic has delivered some of the biggest hits of the year and with at least four more event films hitting the same audience between now and July 8th some fatigue might be a factor and could potentially lead to under-performance.

Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates (Fox)

PROS:

– R-Rated wedding-themed comedies have a long history of being one of the most lucrative laugher sub-genres.

– Both Anna Kendrick and Zac Efron are very recognizable leads with the film’s target audience of teens and young adults.

CONS:

– Social media numbers have been very weak across both Facebook and Twitter which is an especially worrying sign considering its trying to appeal to young adult movie-goers primarily.

– Zac Efron has not headlined a comedy to open with more than $13 million since 2009’s 17 Again (discounting Neighbors thanks to the big pull that is Seth Rogen).

Check out our complete long range forecast in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
The Secret Life of Pets Jul 8, 2016 Universal $66,000,000 $265,000,000
Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates Jul 8, 2016 Fox $15,000,000 $40,000,000
The BFG Jul 1, 2016 Disney / DreamWorks $31,000,000* $85,000,000
The Legend of Tarzan Jul 1, 2016 Warner Bros. $23,500,000* $50,000,000
The Purge: Election Year Jul 1, 2016 Universal $21,000,000* $42,000,000
The Shallows Jun 29, 2016 Sony / Columbia $11,200,000* $28,000,000
Independence Day: Resurgence Jun 24, 2016 Fox $68,000,000 $175,000,000
Free State of Jones Jun 24, 2016 STX Entertainment $11,500,000 $43,000,000
Finding Dory Jun 17, 2016 Disney $108,000,000 $390,000,000
Central Intelligence Jun 17, 2016 Warner Bros. / New Line $52,000,000 $155,000,000
The Conjuring 2 Jun 10, 2016 Warner Bros. / New Line $45,000,000 $105,000,000
Warcraft Jun 10, 2016 Universal $35,000,000 $78,000,000
Now You See Me 2 Jun 10, 2016 Lionsgate / Summit $23,000,000 $65,000,000
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows Jun 3, 2016 Paramount $53,000,000 $145,000,000
Me Before You Jun 3, 2016 Warner Bros. / New Line $15,000,000 $45,000,000
Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping Jun 3, 2016 Universal $10,000,000 $25,000,000
X-Men: Apocalypse May 27, 2016 Fox $95,000,000* $190,000,000
Alice Through the Looking Glass May 27, 2016 Disney $70,000,000* $170,000,000
The Angry Birds Movie May 20, 2016 Sony / Columbia $42,000,000 $137,000,000
Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising May 20, 2016 Universal $40,000,000 $105,000,000
The Nice Guys May 20, 2016 Warner Bros. $17,000,000 $75,000,000

* indicates a prediction for a four-day holiday weekend.

Shawn Robbins, Daniel Garris, Jesse Rifkin and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

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