This week’s Long Range Forecast welcomes two releases slated for September 15 openings. We’ve also updated a handful of other upcoming releases in the chart below.
PROS:
- American Assassin (Lionsgate) has the benefit of source material to cull existing fans from, as well as Michael Keaton’s adult audience combined with Dylan O’Brien’s younger audience.
- All I See Is You will hope to appeal to fans of Blake Lively, who turned 2015’s The Age of Adaline into a solid mid-range performer with positive word of mouth that generated $42 million domestically.
CONS:
- Coming off the heels of summer and the previous week’s It, we feel American Assassin is more likely poised to perform along the modest levels of The November Man, A Walk Among the Tombstones, etc. Social media buzz is fairly muted this far out from release.
- Likewise, All I See Is You‘s target female audience could be preoccupied with Home Again (opening the week before) if reception for the latter film is positive.
This Week’s Changes & Other Notes
- With both Dunkirk and Girls Trip looking to enjoy lengthy runs, we’ve slightly lowered our expectations for Atomic Blonde — however, marketing has been strong and we remain optimistic in its overall potential.
- The Emoji Movie should benefit from a lack of kid-oriented films in the late summer market. Strong marketing is aiding our latest forecast bump.
- The Dark Tower hasn’t picked up significant steam across social media channels, which is something of a minor concern for an established property. There’s still some time for things to pick up but July’s slew of well-received holdovers could further dampen overall interest and potential unless reviews for Tower are strong.
- Our first public forecast for Detroit is now included in the chart.
- Kidnap‘s lack of marketing reach remains a concern ahead of its release in two weeks.
- Immediately prior to publication, Paramount moved Darren Aronofsky’s mother! to a slated September 15 wide release. We’re currently holding off public forecasts until a trailer is available.
The Forecast:
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day Wide Opening | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total | % Chg from Last Week | Location Count | Distributor |
| 7/28/2017 | Atomic Blonde | $26,000,000 | -5% | $82,500,000 | -10% | 3,200 | Focus Features |
| 7/28/2017 | The Emoji Movie: Express Yourself | $30,000,000 | 3% | $105,500,000 | 3% | 3,700 | Sony / Columbia |
| 8/4/2017 | The Dark Tower | $33,000,000 | -21% | $84,000,000 | -21% | 3,700 | Sony / Columbia |
| 8/4/2017 | Detroit | $13,000,000 | NEW | $31,000,000 | NEW | 2,300 | Annapurna Pictures |
| 8/4/2017 | An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power | n/a | n/a | n/a | Paramount | ||
| 8/4/2017 | Kidnap | $4,000,000 | -20% | $9,000,000 | -25% | 2,000 | Aviron |
| 8/11/2017 | Annabelle: Creation | $27,000,000 | $61,000,000 | Warner Bros. / New Line | |||
| 8/11/2017 | The Glass Castle | $3,500,000 | $10,500,000 | Lionsgate | |||
| 8/11/2017 | The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature | $12,000,000 | $40,000,000 | Open Road | |||
| 8/18/2017 | The Hitman’s Bodyguard | $19,000,000 | $57,000,000 | Lionsgate / Summit | |||
| 8/18/2017 | Logan Lucky | $12,000,000 | $39,000,000 | Bleecker Street | |||
| 8/25/2017 | All Saints | $4,000,000 | $12,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 8/25/2017 | Birth of the Dragon | $2,500,000 | $5,500,000 | BH Tilt | |||
| 8/25/2017 | Crown Heights | n/a | n/a | Amazon Studio / IFC Films | |||
| 8/25/2017 | A Gentleman | n/a | NEW | n/a | NEW | FIP | |
| 8/25/2017 | Polaroid | $9,000,000 | $23,500,000 | TWC / Dimension | |||
| 8/25/2017 | Tulip Fever | n/a | n/a | Weinstein Company | |||
| 8/30/2017 | Leap! | $4,500,000 | $15,800,000 | The Weinstein Company | |||
| 9/1/2017 | Renegades | $4,000,000 | $9,500,000 | STX Entertainment | |||
| 9/1/2017 | Unlocked | n/a | n/a | Lionsgate Premiere | |||
| 9/8/2017 | Home Again | $12,000,000 | $45,000,000 | Open Road Films | |||
| 9/8/2017 | It | $40,000,000 | $100,000,000 | Warner Bros. / New Line | |||
| 9/15/2017 | All I See Is You | $6,500,000 | NEW | $15,600,000 | NEW | Open Road | |
| 9/15/2017 | American Assassin | $10,000,000 | NEW | $25,000,000 | NEW | Lionsgate | |
| 9/15/2017 | mother! | n/a | NEW | n/a | NEW | Paramount |
Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.
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