Three new wide releases open up on July 22 this year hoping for strong late summer runs. Paramount will be hoping Star Trek Beyond will be a solid addition to the rebooted franchise and run away with the weekly crown. Fox will offer up the fifth Ice Age film entitled Ice Age: Collision Course with an eye towards the franchise at least continuing its consistent showings of the past. Lastly, Warner Bros. will try its hand at the supernatural genre with Lights Out.
Star Trek Beyond (Paramount)
PROS:
– Star Trek is one of the most iconic franchises of all time, having spawned 12 feature films, numerous popular TV shows and a throng of spin-off merchandise. As far as name recognition worldwide it’s right up there with James Bond and Luke Skywalker.
– The rebooted franchise has been a cash cow for Paramount over the past seven years, grossing over $750 million worldwide and handily surpassing all past films in unadjusted grosses.
– Social media awareness has been solid, especially on Twitter where its trailer debuts have easily outpaced those from the last film Star Trek Into Darkness.
CONS:
– The heart and soul of the rebirth of the franchise was director J.J. Abrams, but with his departure as director is a big change that many fans were not pleased with, even if he did stay on as producer.
– The second film could not keep up with the domestic grosses of the original (or match its reviews). Worry is that the third will continue the trend downwards domestically.
Ice Age: Collision Course (Fox)
PROS:
– The Ice Age movies are one of the most consistent family-friendly franchises, with all four films grossing between $160 and $200 million domestically. Fox seems to have the formula for success right here as very few animated franchises have ever been as consistent over as many outings.
– With almost $3 billion worldwide across its four releases to date it is just shy of becoming the highest worldwide grossing animated film franchise of all time (a record currently held by Shrek), a mark it should surpass within a couple weeks of release.
– Two weeks removed from The Secret Life Of Pets and having the family friendly market all to itself until Pete’s Dragon on August 12th it has carved out a niche for itself at the end of Summer to capitalize on its target demographic before schools reopen.
CONS:
– While it did amazingly well internationally, the last film in the franchise had the lowest return domestically ($161 million), this could continue that downward trend.
– Animated CGI film fatigue could be an issue after the long Summer season of projected winners including Angry Birds, Finding Dory and The Secret Life Of Pets.
Lights Out (Warner Bros.)
PROS:
– With no direct competition in the market since The Conjuring 2 over a month before, the market should be more than primed for another horror offering.
– Horror genre superstar James Wan produces here (funny enough he also directs the aforementioned The Conjuring 2), and with his long list of breakout horror successes as a director and producer the film has a lot going for it.
– The reported budget is only $5 million here which means that it really doesn’t have to do too much to make it into the black.
CONS:
– Wan has also had his losses as a producer (see Demonic).
– For any horror to breakout social media performance is almost always key and so far this has been very muted (not even at 50k likes on Facebook). While it has time to explode before release still it’s yet to show any real signs of life.
Check out our complete long range forecast in the table below.
| Title | Release Date | Distributor | Opening Weekend | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Star Trek Beyond | Jul 22, 2016 | Paramount | $56,000,000 | $159,000,000 |
| Ice Age: Collision Course | Jul 22, 2016 | Fox | $39,000,000 | $133,000,000 |
| Lights Out | Jul 22, 2016 | Warner Bros. | $10,000,000 | $25,000,000 |
| Ghostbusters | Jul 15, 2016 | Sony / Columbia | $63,000,000 | $178,000,000 |
| The Infiltrator | Jul 13, 2016 | Broad Green Pictures | $6,000,000 | $20,000,000 |
| The Secret Life of Pets | Jul 8, 2016 | Universal | $66,000,000 | $265,000,000 |
| Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates | Jul 8, 2016 | Fox | $15,000,000 | $40,000,000 |
| The BFG | Jul 1, 2016 | Disney / DreamWorks | $31,000,000* | $85,000,000 |
| The Legend of Tarzan | Jul 1, 2016 | Warner Bros. | $23,500,000* | $50,000,000 |
| The Purge: Election Year | Jul 1, 2016 | Universal | $21,000,000* | $42,000,000 |
| The Shallows | Jun 29, 2016 | Sony / Columbia | $11,200,000* | $28,000,000 |
| Independence Day: Resurgence | Jun 24, 2016 | Fox | $68,000,000 | $175,000,000 |
| Free State of Jones | Jun 24, 2016 | STX Entertainment | $11,500,000 | $43,000,000 |
| Finding Dory | Jun 17, 2016 | Disney | $111,000,000 | $400,000,000 |
| Central Intelligence | Jun 17, 2016 | Warner Bros. / New Line | $52,000,000 | $155,000,000 |
| The Conjuring 2 | Jun 10, 2016 | Warner Bros. / New Line | $45,000,000 | $110,000,000 |
| Warcraft | Jun 10, 2016 | Universal | $29,000,000 | $62,000,000 |
| Now You See Me 2 | Jun 10, 2016 | Lionsgate / Summit | $27,000,000 | $75,000,000 |
| Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows | Jun 3, 2016 | Paramount | $42,000,000 | $113,000,000 |
| Me Before You | Jun 3, 2016 | Warner Bros. / New Line | $18,000,000 | $72,000,000 |
| Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping | Jun 3, 2016 | Universal | $8,500,000 | $18,000,000 |
* indicates a prediction for a four-day holiday weekend.
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