Long Range Forecast: ‘Star Trek Beyond’, ‘Ice Age: Collision Course’ & ‘Lights Out’

Three new wide releases open up on July 22 this year hoping for strong late summer runs. Paramount will be hoping Star Trek Beyond will be a solid addition to the rebooted franchise and run away with the weekly crown. Fox will offer up the fifth Ice Age film entitled Ice Age: Collision Course with an eye towards the franchise at least continuing its consistent showings of the past. Lastly, Warner Bros. will try its hand at the supernatural genre with Lights Out 

Star Trek Beyond (Paramount)


– Star Trek is one of the most iconic franchises of all time, having spawned 12 feature films, numerous popular TV shows and a throng of spin-off merchandise. As far as name recognition worldwide it’s right up there with James Bond and Luke Skywalker.

– The rebooted franchise has been a cash cow for Paramount over the past seven years, grossing over $750 million worldwide and handily surpassing all past films in unadjusted grosses.

– Social media awareness has been solid, especially on Twitter where its trailer debuts have easily outpaced those from the last film Star Trek Into Darkness.


– The heart and soul of the rebirth of the franchise was director J.J. Abrams, but with his departure as director is a big change that many fans were not pleased with, even if he did stay on as producer.

– The second film could not keep up with the domestic grosses of the original (or match its reviews). Worry is that the third will continue the trend downwards domestically.

Ice Age: Collision Course (Fox)


– The Ice Age movies are one of the most consistent family-friendly franchises, with all four films grossing between $160 and $200 million domestically. Fox seems to have the formula for success right here as very few animated franchises have ever been as consistent over as many outings.

– With almost $3 billion worldwide across its four releases to date it is just shy of becoming the highest worldwide grossing animated film franchise of all time (a record currently held by Shrek), a mark it should surpass within a couple weeks of release.

– Two weeks removed from The Secret Life Of Pets and having the family friendly market all to itself until Pete’s Dragon on August 12th it has carved out a niche for itself at the end of Summer to capitalize on its target demographic before schools reopen.


– While it did amazingly well internationally, the last film in the franchise had the lowest return domestically ($161 million), this could continue that downward trend.

– Animated CGI film fatigue could be an issue after the long Summer season of projected winners including Angry BirdsFinding Dory and The Secret Life Of Pets.

Lights Out (Warner Bros.)


– With no direct competition in the market since The Conjuring 2 over a month before, the market should be more than primed for another horror offering.

– Horror genre superstar James Wan produces here (funny enough he also directs the aforementioned The Conjuring 2), and with his long list of breakout horror successes as a director and producer the film has a lot going for it.

– The reported budget is only $5 million here which means that it really doesn’t have to do too much to make it into the black.


– Wan has also had his losses as a producer (see Demonic).

– For any horror to breakout social media performance is almost always key and so far this has been very muted (not even at 50k likes on Facebook). While it has time to explode before release still it’s yet to show any real signs of life.

Check out our complete long range forecast in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Star Trek Beyond Jul 22, 2016 Paramount  $56,000,000 $159,000,000
Ice Age: Collision Course Jul 22, 2016 Fox  $39,000,000 $133,000,000
Lights Out Jul 22, 2016 Warner Bros.  $10,000,000 $25,000,000
Ghostbusters Jul 15, 2016 Sony / Columbia $63,000,000 $178,000,000
The Infiltrator Jul 13, 2016 Broad Green Pictures $6,000,000 $20,000,000
The Secret Life of Pets Jul 8, 2016 Universal $66,000,000 $265,000,000
Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates Jul 8, 2016 Fox $15,000,000 $40,000,000
The BFG Jul 1, 2016 Disney / DreamWorks $31,000,000* $85,000,000
The Legend of Tarzan Jul 1, 2016 Warner Bros. $23,500,000* $50,000,000
The Purge: Election Year Jul 1, 2016 Universal $21,000,000* $42,000,000
The Shallows Jun 29, 2016 Sony / Columbia $11,200,000* $28,000,000
Independence Day: Resurgence Jun 24, 2016 Fox $68,000,000 $175,000,000
Free State of Jones Jun 24, 2016 STX Entertainment $11,500,000 $43,000,000
Finding Dory Jun 17, 2016 Disney $111,000,000 $400,000,000
Central Intelligence Jun 17, 2016 Warner Bros. / New Line $52,000,000 $155,000,000
The Conjuring 2 Jun 10, 2016 Warner Bros. / New Line $45,000,000 $110,000,000
Warcraft Jun 10, 2016 Universal $29,000,000 $62,000,000
Now You See Me 2 Jun 10, 2016 Lionsgate / Summit $27,000,000 $75,000,000
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows Jun 3, 2016 Paramount $42,000,000 $113,000,000
Me Before You Jun 3, 2016 Warner Bros. / New Line $18,000,000 $72,000,000
Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping Jun 3, 2016 Universal $8,500,000 $18,000,000

* indicates a prediction for a four-day holiday weekend.

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