Long Range Forecast — May 22, 2026
Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu | Disney/Lucasfilm
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $90M – $100M
Star Wars makes its return to the big screen in this spin-off from the popular Disney+ TV series. Since the release of Star Wars: Episode IX – The Rise of Skywalker ($177.3M domestic opening) in 2019 the franchise has largely been relegated to Disney’s streaming service, which may have an adverse affect on audience interest in this new chapter. Star Wars‘ six-year absence from the big screen, paired with The Mandalorian and Grogu‘s small screen origins and the film’s status as a standalone adventure (vs an official part of the core saga) have us leaning conservative for our opening weekend forecast, though as marketing ramps up closer to release our prediction could nudge upwards. (Of note on that front: San Diego Comic Con and D23, the biggest events on Disney’s calendar in terms of hyping up future releases, don’t take place until after The Mandalorian and Grogu is released.)
A $100M opening for The Mandalorian and Grogu would be the lowest for a Star Wars film since 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story ($84.4M), also a May release. The other big-screen Star Wars spinoff, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, opened to $155M in December of 2016, a tally that The Mandalorian and Grogu is unlikely to match. (Rogue One, sandwiched between Star Wars: Episode VII: The Force Awakens in December 2015 and Star Wars Episode VIII: The Last Jedi in December 2017, opened at a time when fan enthusiasm for the franchise was notably higher.)
Looking outside Star Wars to another Disney flagship property, The Marvels ($46.1M) and Thunderbolts* ($74.3M) both featured main characters who were introduced to the MCU via a TV show, not a movie, and both opened on the low end compared to their franchise predecessors. The Mandalorian himself, Pedro Pascal, also starred in July 2025 MCU entry The Fantastic Four: First Steps, which opened on par with expectations ($117.6M) but had a hard time maintaining momentum, topping out in the middle of the Marvel pack with $274.2M.
Tracking Updates [As Of 4/24/26]
| Release Date | Title | Predicted Opening Range | Distributor |
| 4/24 | Michael | $65M – $75M | Lionsgate |
| 5/1 | The Devil Wears Prada 2 | $90M – $100M | 20th Century Studios |
| 5/1 | Animal Farm | $5M – $7M | Angel Studios |
| 5/1 | Hokum | $3M – $5M | Neon |
| 5/8 | The Sheep Detectives | $10M – $15M | Amazon MGM |
| 5/8 | Mortal Kombat II | $45M – $55M | Warner Bros. |
| 5/15 | In the Grey | $4M – $7M | Black Bear |
| 5/15 | Is God Is | $3M – $5M | Amazon MGM |
| 5/15 | Obsession | $5M – $8M | Focus Features |
| 5/22 | Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu | $90M – $100M | Disney/Lucasfilm |
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