This week’s Long Range Forecast takes a first look at Super Bowl weekend in February 2018.
PROS:
- Although still slated for a February 2 release, Paramount and Bad Robot’s third Cloverfield film — rumored to be titled God Particle — is a major X factor for this weekend and still does not have a trailer available. That being said, 10 Cloverfield Lane famously had its trailer withheld until less than two months before release, surprising fans and leveraging strong interest and reviews into a successful $24.7 million debut and $72.1 million domestic run. If the studio plans to stick with that date, it stands to reason we’ll see a trailer very soon — likely in front of Star Wars: The Last Jedi next week.
- Winchester: The House that Ghosts Built will hope to benefit from the wave of success enjoyed by many horror releases over the past few years. The genre has had its share of winners on Super Bowl weekend in the past — the most relevant comp being 2012’s The Woman In Black. Based on a true story, this could have room to do well if the Cloverfield film is delayed again.
CONS:
- Overall, Super Bowl weekend can be hit or miss for new releases. Last year’s Rings opened to a lukewarm$13 million despite having some built-in fan base — although poor reviews were a major cause for its under-performance. The sporting weekend tends to be deflated (no pun intended) with many films dropping 50 to 60 percent or more from Saturday to Sunday, so it makes sense for studios to only push out films with strong appeal and/or low risk, high reward potential.
- While social media activity is not relevant at this stage for the potential Cloverfield title, early buzz and trailer reactions for Winchester are modest to this point. That’s par for the course with a non-franchise film though, so it remains to be seen how trends pick up after the new year begins.
This Week’s Notes & Other Changes
- Star Wars: The Last Jedi continues to track in line with recent trends. Our range for opening weekend is holding steady between $185 million and $215 million. The film’s review embargo lifts on Tuesday, December 12 at 12pm Eastern.
- Ferdinand and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle continue to build strong cases as counter-programming options for families over the Christmas and New Year’s corridor. The latter is showing particularly strong signs of breaking out.
The 8-Week Forecast:
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day Wide Opening | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total | % Chg from Last Week | Location Count | Distributor |
| 12/15/2017 | Ferdinand | $25,000,000 | 25% | $150,000,000 | 3,600 | Fox | |
| 12/15/2017 | Star Wars: The Last Jedi | $209,000,000 | -1% | $675,000,000 | -2% | 4,100 | Disney |
| 12/20/2017 | The Greatest Showman | $11,000,000 | $75,000,000 | 3,000 | Fox | ||
| 12/20/2017 | Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle | $28,000,000 | $190,000,000 | 3,500 | Sony / Columbia | ||
| 12/22/2017 | Downsizing | $10,000,000 | $59,000,000 | 2,900 | Paramount | ||
| 12/22/2017 | Pitch Perfect 3 | $34,000,000 | $115,000,000 | -5% | 3,400 | Universal | |
| 12/22/2017 | Father Figures | $7,000,000 | $41,000,000 | 2,600 | Warner Bros. | ||
| 12/25/2017 | All the Money in the World | n/a | $23,500,000 | TriStar | |||
| 12/29/2017 | (no films scheduled currently) | – | – | – | |||
| 1/5/2018 | Insidious: The Last Key | $19,500,000 | $34,500,000 | Universal | |||
| 1/5/2018 | Molly’s Game | $8,000,000 | $28,000,000 | STXfilms | |||
| 1/12/2018 | The Commuter | $12,000,000 | $31,000,000 | Lionsgate | |||
| 1/12/2018 | Condorito: La Pelicula | $5,000,000 | $12,500,000 | Lionsgate | |||
| 1/12/2018 | Paddington 2 | $19,000,000 | $70,000,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
| 1/12/2018 | The Post (expansion) | $20,000,000 | $90,000,000 | Fox | |||
| 1/12/2018 | Proud Mary | $17,000,000 | $55,000,000 | Sony / Screen Gems | |||
| 1/19/2018 | 12 Strong | $10,000,000 | $36,000,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
| 1/19/2018 | Den of Thieves | $6,500,000 | $13,000,000 | STXfilms | |||
| 1/19/2018 | Forever My Girl | n/a | n/a | Roadside Attractions | |||
| 1/26/2018 | Maze Runner: The Death Cure | $24,000,000 | $65,000,000 | Fox | |||
| 2/2/2018 | 2018 Cloverfield Movie | n/a | NEW | n/a | NEW | Paramount | |
| 2/2/2018 | Winchester: The House that Ghosts Built | $10,000,000 | NEW | $28,000,000 | NEW | Lionsgate / CBS Films |
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