Long Range Tracking: ‘Ant-Man and the Wasp’ Debuts; ‘Deadpool 2’ & ‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’ Updates

The 20th chapter of the Marvel Cinematic Universe headlines this week’s report as we take an early look at the box office prospects for Ant-Man and the Wasp, plus updates on other key titles like Deadpool 2 and Solo: A Star Wars Story below.

Ant-Man and the Wasp
Opening Weekend Range: $75 – 95 million

The direct follow-up to 2015’s origin story will take the MCU back in time, chronologically speaking, to the period immediately after the events of Captain America: Civil War. Although fans will still be coming off the cliffhanger of Avengers: Infinity War and won’t likely get any answers to burning questions from that blockbuster, goodwill from this sequel’s leggy predecessor and the promise of Evangeline Lilly’s promotion to a co-leading presence should give this film notable momentum going into opening weekend.

Early buzz for the July 6 sequel is very positive with Twitter activity nearly doubling that of the first Ant-Man at the same point, although it has some work ahead of it to catch up to the social media performance of Doctor Strange (part of which can be attributed to the international fame of that film’s star, Benedict Cumberbatch).

Of note: prior sequels in the Marvel universe that followed Avengers films — such as Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2Captain America: The Winter SoldierThor: The Dark World, and both Iron Man sequels — enjoyed a range of 30 – 55 percent increases from the opening weekend gross of their relative film predecessors. That’s likely to be the case here, as well, especially if reviews live up to the usual Marvel standard.

Deadpool 2
Opening Weekend Range:  $125 – 150 million

Tracking continues to improve for the Merc’s sequel as Twitter activity has finally overtaken that of the first Deadpool at the same point before release, while also now topping Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Thor: Ragnarok.

Solo: A Star Wars Story
Opening Weekend Range: $120 – 150 million (3-day) / $145 – 185 million (4-day)

After an influx of buzz during the confluence of first ticket sales and the “May the 4th” franchise holiday last week, enthusiasm remains a bit more tempered at this point as die hard fans await the first wave of reviews and social media reactions from industry screenings — the latter of which lean very positive so far. Nevertheless, overall Twitter mentions for the film remain significantly ahead of Guardians Vol. 2 and Rogue One, underlining the franchise’s enduring popularity among the masses.

Other Updates

  • Action Point appeared on traditional tracking for the first time this week with metrics similar to those of Popstar, although it’s too early to gauge the film’s true potential as May’s trio of blockbusters continues to dominate moviegoer interest. Social media traction has stalled for the comedy in recent weeks, though, leading to more conservative expectations. Competition with Deadpool 2 for the R-rated comedy segment is a key factor.
  • Slated to open Wednesday, July 4, Boxoffice’s first tracking for The First Purge (based on the three-day weekend) is listed in the chart below. Although some diminished returns are expected for the franchise entering its fourth film, this prequel’s first teaser poster ignited strong online chatter.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
5/18/2018 Book Club $9,500,000 $30,000,000 2,500 Paramount
5/18/2018 Deadpool 2 $133,000,000 2% $319,000,000 2% 4,200 Fox
5/18/2018 Show Dogs $8,000,000 $25,000,000 3,000 Global Road Films
5/25/2018 Solo: A Star Wars Story $142,000,000 $390,000,000 4,100 Disney
6/1/2018 Action Point $13,500,000 -21% $34,000,000 -20% Paramount
6/1/2018 Adrift $10,000,000 $34,000,000 STXfilms
6/1/2018 Upgrade $3,000,000 NEW $7,500,000 NEW OTL Releasing / BH Tilt
6/8/2018 Hereditary n/a n/a A24
6/8/2018 Hotel Artemis n/a n/a Global Road
6/8/2018 Ocean’s 8 $42,000,000 $145,000,000 Warner Bros.
6/15/2018 The Incredibles 2 $110,000,000 $395,000,000 Disney / Pixar
6/15/2018 Superfly n/a n/a Sony
6/15/2018 Tag $13,000,000 $43,000,000 Warner Bros.
6/22/2018 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom $135,000,000 $340,000,000 Universal
6/29/2018 The Hustle n/a n/a Mirror Films / MGM
6/29/2018 Sanju n/a n/a Fox
6/29/2018 Sicario: Day of the Soldado $15,000,000 $39,000,000 Sony / Columbia
6/29/2018 Uncle Drew $16,500,000 $45,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
7/4/2018 The First Purge $20,000,000 NEW $55,000,000 NEW Universal
7/6/2018 Ant-Man and the Wasp $84,000,000 NEW $225,000,000 NEW Disney / Marvel

News Stories

Forecasts & Tracking

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Tracking for Mini-Marvel Franchise Best; Will It Become 2023’s First $100M+ Opener?

Shawn Robbins  • 

2023’s first major tentpole is just four weeks away, representing the first of three Marvel Cinematic Universe theatrical releases this year. Here’s what’s driving preliminary tracking for the anticipated sequel. Ant-Man and the Wasp: QuantumaniaDisney & Marvel StudiosFebruary 17, 2023...