Long Range Tracking: Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)

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As our preliminary look into 2020 continues, this week’s report offers up a first analysis of what to expect from Warner Bros.’ next big screen adaptation in the DC universe.

Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)
Opening Weekend Range: $40 – 60 million

PROS:

  • Margot Robbie’s return to the role of Harley Quinn is far and away the biggest selling point of this spin-off after her widely praised turn as the character in 2016’s summer blockbuster, Suicide Squad.

  • The DC franchise has seen a steady upswing in goodwill recently thanks to the critical and box office success of films like Joker, Wonder Woman, Shazam!, and Aquaman.

  • This film’s mostly female ensemble could be very appealing to fans expressing their desire for more diverse offerings from the comic book cinematic realm.

CONS:

  • Initial reactions to trailers have been mixed, based on social media metrics thus far. The film is generating a fair share of discussion among fan circles, but sentiment isn’t yet comparable with the likes of DC’s bigger hits.

  • Aside from Harley Quinn herself, the film is packed with lesser known characters that may not be well known outside the DC fan base. Final marketing, reviews, and word of mouth will be crucial to building interest among the uninitiated.

  • Other than Robbie herself, reception for Suicide Squad was largely mixed and could impact some of the non-fan interest going into this film — especially with possible confusion as to how this movie connects to the recent Joker (it doesn’t).

Upcoming Location Count Estimates

  • Bombshell (n/a)
  • Cats (3,200)
  • Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (4,200)
  • Little Women (3,200)
  • Spies in Disguise (3,300)
  • Uncut Gems (2,500 wide expansion)

8-Week Tracking & Forecasts

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Range Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Distributor
12/20/2019 Bombshell (Wide Expansion) $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 $6,000,000   $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 $35,000,000 -13% Lionsgate
12/20/2019 Cats $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 $12,000,000 -14% $50,000,000 – $100,000,000 $59,000,000 -14% Universal
12/20/2019 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker $185,000,000 – $225,000,000 $200,000,000   $550,000,000 – $750,000,000 $680,000,000   Disney / Lucasfilm
12/25/2019 Little Women (2019) $17,000,000 – $27,000,000 $23,000,000 15% $90,000,000 – $130,000,000 $115,000,000 15% Sony / Columbia
12/25/2019 Spies in Disguise $13,000,000 – $23,000,000 $16,000,000   $60,000,000 – $100,000,000 $75,000,000 -6% Fox / Blue Sky
12/25/2019 Uncut Gems (Wide) $3,000,000 – $8,000,000 $5,000,000 NEW   n/a   A24
1/3/2020 The Grudge (2020) $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 $14,000,000   $25,000,000 – $45,000,000 $32,000,000   Sony / Columbia
1/10/2020 1917 (Wide) $20,000,000 – $25,000,000 $24,000,000 4% $75,000,000 – $100,000,000 $94,000,000 4% Universal / DreamWorks
1/10/2020 Just Mercy (Wide) $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 $14,000,000   $50,000,000 – $70,000,000 $59,000,000   Warner Bros.
1/10/2020 Like a Boss $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 $17,000,000   $45,000,000 – $60,000,000 $51,000,000   Paramount
1/10/2020 Underwater $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 $6,500,000   $12,000,000 – $25,000,000 $18,000,000   Fox
1/17/2020 Bad Boys for Life $21,000,000 – $31,000,000 $25,000,000   $55,000,000 – $75,000,000 $64,000,000   Sony / Columbia
1/17/2020 Dolittle $30,000,000 – $50,000,000 $40,000,000   $120,000,000 – $170,000,000 $145,000,000   Universal
1/24/2020 The Gentlemen $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $12,000,000   $30,000,000 – $50,000,000 $38,000,000   STX
1/24/2020 The Last Full Measure   n/a     n/a   Roadside Attractions
1/24/2020 Run   n/a     n/a   Lionsgate / Summit
1/24/2020 The Turning $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $14,000,000   $25,000,000 – $40,000,000 $38,000,000   Universal
1/31/2020 Gretel and Hansel $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 $5,500,000   $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 $11,000,000   United Artists Releasing
1/31/2020 The Rhythm Section $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $12,000,000   $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 $38,000,000   Paramount
2/7/2020 Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 $49,000,000 NEW $100,000,000 – $150,000,000 $125,000,000 NEW Warner Bros.

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Alex Edghill contributed to this report

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