Long Range Tracking: ‘Bohemian Rhapsody,’ ‘Nobody’s Fool,’ & ‘The Nutcracker and the Four Realms’

Boxoffice’s Long Range Tracking report takes a first official look at the 2018 holiday season this week with early projections for several key releases scheduled for November 2.

Bohemian Rhapsody
Opening Weekend Range: $25 – 40 million

Buzz around Rami Malek’s (Mr. Robot) anticipated performance as Queen front-man Freddie Mercury is driving strong interest and online conversation thus far, indicating potential for the film to follow in the footsteps of Walk the Line and Ray as an award-contending music bio released in November. The film’s director change midway through production may cause some initial concern, and while we expect some front-loading by Queen’s multiple generations of fans, early reactions from industry screenings of the film’s first half-hour have been very encouraging.

Tyler Perry’s Nobody’s Fool
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 20 million

Rising star Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip) could be a notable driving factor for this comedy, not to mention writer/director’s Tyler Perry’s own consistent audience. We’re somewhat conservative for now given the recent availability of the film’s first trailer, but early trends suggest it could be a fair counter-programmer.

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 30 million

Forecasting models for Disney’s next live action adaptation are volatile for now, due in part to what will be a stronger slate of kid- and family-driven releases later in November and December. Nutcracker‘s early trailers have generated a fair amount of positive sentiment online, staying power could be solid with the holiday season ahead, and the film’s notable ensemble cast may help appeal to parents. Still, we’re cautious given the mixed performances of Disney’s non-tentpole features in recent years. Initial trend and performance comps include the likes of A Wrinkle In Time, The BFG, and Alice Through the Looking Glass.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
9/14/2018 The Predator (2018) $31,000,000 3% $68,000,000 3% 3,900 Fox
9/14/2018 A Simple Favor $13,500,000 $38,600,000 3,000 Lionsgate
9/14/2018 Unbroken: Path to Redemption $3,000,000 50% $7,500,000 53% 1,525 Pure Flix
9/14/2018 White Boy Rick $8,500,000 -15% $27,000,000 -16% 2,400 Sony / Studio 8
9/21/2018 Assassination Nation n/a n/a n/a Neon
9/21/2018 Fahrenheit 11/9 $5,000,000 NEW n/a 1,000 Briarcliff
9/21/2018 The House with a Clock In Its Walls $24,000,000 $79,000,000 3,500 Universal
9/21/2018 Life Itself n/a n/a n/a Amazon Studios
9/28/2018 Hell Fest $9,500,000 $22,000,000 Lionsgate / CBS Films
9/28/2018 Little Women (2018) n/a n/a Pinnacle Peak
9/28/2018 Night School (2018) $22,000,000 26% $69,000,000 26% Universal
9/28/2018 Smallfoot $22,000,000 -4% $76,500,000 -4% Warner Bros.
10/5/2018 A Star Is Born $44,000,000 $150,000,000 Warner Bros.
10/5/2018 Venom (2018) $65,000,000 $135,000,000 Sony / Columbia
10/12/2018 Bad Times at the El Royale $13,000,000 $40,000,000 Fox
10/12/2018 First Man $22,000,000 10% $105,000,000 17% Universal
10/12/2018 Goosebumps: Haunted Halloween $14,000,000 $45,000,000 Sony / Columbia
10/19/2018 Halloween (2018) $60,000,000 $142,000,000 Universal
10/19/2018 The Hate U Give n/a n/a Fox
10/19/2018 Serenity (2018) n/a n/a Aviron
10/26/2018 Hunter Killer $14,000,000 $41,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
10/26/2018 Indivisible n/a n/a Pure Flix
10/26/2018 Johnny English Strikes Again $4,000,000 $8,750,000 Universal
11/2/2018 Bohemian Rhapsody $35,000,000 NEW $125,000,000 NEW Fox
11/2/2018 Tyler Perry’s Nobody’s Fool $15,000,000 NEW $40,000,000 NEW Paramount
11/2/2018 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms $20,000,000 NEW $79,000,000 NEW Disney
11/2/2018 The List n/a n/a Paramount
11/2/2018 Suspiria (Wide) n/a n/a Amazon Studios

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