Long Range Tracking: Crawl, Stuber, & More Summer Updates

This week’s report welcomes a couple of new additions to the two-month industry outlook, slated to release on Friday, July 12.

PROS:

  • Crawl will hope to rally fans of producer/horror veteran Sam Raimi and director Alexandre Aja with a well-timed, midsummer alligator creature feature. Early trailer reactions are largely positive, and this could attract a healthy teen/date night audience in the vein of films like Don’t Breathe, The Shallows, and 47 Meters Down.
  • Stuber pairs together one of comedy’s biggest rising stars in Kumail Nanjiani (The Big Sick, Silicon Valley) and another Marvel staple, Dave Bautista (Guardians of the Galaxy, Spectre). Positive trailer reactions and the lack of direct comedy competition in July make this a strong sleeper contender.

CONS:

  • The horror/thriller market is fairly crowded this summer, notably with Crawl opening just over two weeks after Annabelle Comes Home and two weeks before Brahms: The Boy 2. As is typical with original films in the genre, tracking visibility will improve significantly close to release.
  • Early social media trends for Stuber are unsurprisingly modest for the original pic, but initial comparisons include the likes of last summer’s Tag.

Opening Weekend Ranges

  • Crawl ($13 – 22 million)
  • Stuber ($12 – 21 million)

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Release Tracking % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
5/24/2019 Aladdin $68,500,000 2% $192,000,000 2% 4,300 Disney
5/24/2019 Booksmart $7,000,000   n/a   2,300 United Artists Releasing
5/24/2019 BrightBurn $9,000,000 -10% $23,000,000   2,600 Sony / Columbia
5/31/2019 Godzilla: King of the Monsters $54,000,000   $144,000,000   3,900 Warner Bros.
5/31/2019 Ma $23,000,000   $60,000,000   3,100 Universal
5/31/2019 Rocketman $40,000,000   $165,000,000   3,500 Paramount
6/7/2019 Dark Phoenix $50,000,000 6% $118,000,000 4%   Fox
6/7/2019 Late Night n/a   n/a     Amazon Studios
6/7/2019 The Secret Life of Pets 2 $70,000,000 -13% $245,000,000 -7%   Universal
6/14/2019 Men In Black International $39,000,000   $107,000,000     Sony / Columbia
6/14/2019 Shaft (2019) $31,000,000   $100,000,000     Warner Bros.
6/21/2019 Anna $9,000,000   $26,000,000     Lionsgate / Summit
6/21/2019 Child’s Play (2019) $17,000,000   $42,500,000     Orion Pictures
6/21/2019 Toy Story 4 $117,000,000 4% $390,000,000     Disney / Pixar
6/26/2019 Annabelle Comes Home $31,000,000   $101,000,000     Warner Bros. / New Line
6/28/2019 Yesterday n/a   n/a     Universal
7/2/2019 Spider-Man: Far from Home $120,000,000   $405,000,000     Sony / Columbia / Marvel Studios
7/3/2019 Midsommar n/a   n/a     A24
7/12/2019 Crawl $18,000,000 NEW $47,000,000 NEW   Paramount
7/12/2019 Stuber $17,500,000 NEW $65,000,000 NEW   Fox

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Alex Edghill & Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report

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