This week’s report welcomes a couple of new additions to the two-month industry outlook, slated to release on Friday, July 12.
PROS:
- Crawl will hope to rally fans of producer/horror veteran Sam Raimi and director Alexandre Aja with a well-timed, midsummer alligator creature feature. Early trailer reactions are largely positive, and this could attract a healthy teen/date night audience in the vein of films like Don’t Breathe, The Shallows, and 47 Meters Down.
- Stuber pairs together one of comedy’s biggest rising stars in Kumail Nanjiani (The Big Sick, Silicon Valley) and another Marvel staple, Dave Bautista (Guardians of the Galaxy, Spectre). Positive trailer reactions and the lack of direct comedy competition in July make this a strong sleeper contender.
CONS:
- The horror/thriller market is fairly crowded this summer, notably with Crawl opening just over two weeks after Annabelle Comes Home and two weeks before Brahms: The Boy 2. As is typical with original films in the genre, tracking visibility will improve significantly close to release.
- Early social media trends for Stuber are unsurprisingly modest for the original pic, but initial comparisons include the likes of last summer’s Tag.
Opening Weekend Ranges
- Crawl ($13 – 22 million)
- Stuber ($12 – 21 million)
8-Week Tracking
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day Wide Release Tracking | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 5/24/2019 | Aladdin | $68,500,000 | 2% | $192,000,000 | 2% | 4,300 | Disney |
| 5/24/2019 | Booksmart | $7,000,000 | n/a | 2,300 | United Artists Releasing | ||
| 5/24/2019 | BrightBurn | $9,000,000 | -10% | $23,000,000 | 2,600 | Sony / Columbia | |
| 5/31/2019 | Godzilla: King of the Monsters | $54,000,000 | $144,000,000 | 3,900 | Warner Bros. | ||
| 5/31/2019 | Ma | $23,000,000 | $60,000,000 | 3,100 | Universal | ||
| 5/31/2019 | Rocketman | $40,000,000 | $165,000,000 | 3,500 | Paramount | ||
| 6/7/2019 | Dark Phoenix | $50,000,000 | 6% | $118,000,000 | 4% | Fox | |
| 6/7/2019 | Late Night | n/a | n/a | Amazon Studios | |||
| 6/7/2019 | The Secret Life of Pets 2 | $70,000,000 | -13% | $245,000,000 | -7% | Universal | |
| 6/14/2019 | Men In Black International | $39,000,000 | $107,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 6/14/2019 | Shaft (2019) | $31,000,000 | $100,000,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
| 6/21/2019 | Anna | $9,000,000 | $26,000,000 | Lionsgate / Summit | |||
| 6/21/2019 | Child’s Play (2019) | $17,000,000 | $42,500,000 | Orion Pictures | |||
| 6/21/2019 | Toy Story 4 | $117,000,000 | 4% | $390,000,000 | Disney / Pixar | ||
| 6/26/2019 | Annabelle Comes Home | $31,000,000 | $101,000,000 | Warner Bros. / New Line | |||
| 6/28/2019 | Yesterday | n/a | n/a | Universal | |||
| 7/2/2019 | Spider-Man: Far from Home | $120,000,000 | $405,000,000 | Sony / Columbia / Marvel Studios | |||
| 7/3/2019 | Midsommar | n/a | n/a | A24 | |||
| 7/12/2019 | Crawl | $18,000,000 | NEW | $47,000,000 | NEW | Paramount | |
| 7/12/2019 | Stuber | $17,500,000 | NEW | $65,000,000 | NEW | Fox |
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Alex Edghill & Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report
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