Long Range Tracking: ‘Deadpool 2,’ ‘Book Club,’ & ‘Show Dogs’

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Deadpool 2 represents this week’s headline addition to Long Range Tracking. The anticipated sequel is slated to hit North American theaters on May 18, alongside Open Road’s Show Dogs and Paramount’s Book Club.

Two years ago, the first Deadpool shattered February box office records (recently eclipsed by Black Panther) when it wowed the industry with a $132 million three-day weekend bow. Still the best R-rated launch ever — just ahead of It‘s $123.4 million last September — Deadpool marked a turning point for the superhero genre with its raunchy, self-referential, fourth-wall-breaking comedy from star Ryan Reynolds. The film’s pre-release social marketing campaign became a benchmark on how to engage audiences with a relatively unknown character outside the core fan base.

Can Fox, Reynolds, and team do it again?

It’s an unfair question, because the inevitable answer is no — not in the same way, at least, and it doesn’t really need to. After a massive $363 million domestic/$783 million global run, the cat is out of the proverbial bag. Deadpool is now an established brand, and has no significant box office comparisons beyond itself due to its unique nature as an R-rated tentpole comic book sequel.

The first film was a breath of fresh air in the realm of superheroes, and had a double holiday weekend (Valentine’s Day and Presidents Day) to compound opening weekend interest among the masses. That kind of synergy won’t be duplicated on a non-holiday weekend in May, particularly landing on the fourth weekend of Avengers: Infinity War and coming just one week before Solo: A Star Wars Story. All three films will lean somewhat heavily toward male crowds aged 25 and up.

Nevertheless, strong social media sentiment culled from our Twitter and Facebook analyses indicates fans are pumped for the sequel — in large part due to Josh Brolin’s debut as Cable, one of the most popular villains from Marvel comic lore. While diminished returns are expected at the box office based on current models, early indicators still point toward another sure-fire commercial hit for Fox as their over-arching X-Men universe (of which Deadpool is technically part of) continues to expand. Should strong reviews follow as they did for the first title, forecasts could see additional gains in the weeks ahead.

Boxoffice’s first tracking for Deadpool 2 and the weekend’s fellow openers can be found below, in addition to various other updates.

8-Week Tracking:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
3/29/2018 Ready Player One $37,000,000 $120,000,000 4,100 Warner Bros.
3/30/2018 Acrimony $15,500,000 7% $37,000,000 6% 2,000 Lionsgate
3/30/2018 God’s Not Dead: A Light In Darkness $6,000,000 $15,400,000 1,500 Pure Flix
4/6/2018 Blockers $14,500,000 -19% $47,000,000 -21% 3,300 Universal
4/6/2018 Chappaquiddick $3,500,000 $7,000,000 2,300 Entertainment Studios
4/6/2018 The Miracle Season n/a n/a n/a Mirror / LD Entertainment / Pure Flix
4/6/2018 A Quiet Place $26,000,000 $80,000,000 3,100 Paramount
4/13/2018 Rampage $27,000,000 35% $65,000,000 31% Warner Bros. / New Line
4/13/2018 Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero n/a n/a Fun Academy
4/13/2018 Truth or Dare $15,000,000 -21% $30,000,000 -23% Universal
4/20/2018 I Feel Pretty $21,000,000 $70,000,000 STXfilms
4/20/2018 Super Troopers 2 $5,000,000 $9,000,000 Fox Searchlight
4/20/2018 Traffik $3,500,000 $8,750,000 Lionsgate / Summit
4/27/2018 Avengers: Infinity War $215,000,000 $538,000,000 Disney
5/4/2018 Bad Samaritan n/a n/a Electric Entertainment
5/4/2018 Overboard $14,000,000 $39,000,000 Lionsgate / Pantelion
5/4/2018 Tully n/a n/a Focus Features
5/11/2018 Breaking In $14,000,000 $37,500,000 Universal
5/11/2018 Life of the Party $21,000,000 $54,000,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
5/18/2018 Book Club $6,000,000 NEW $19,000,000 NEW Paramount
5/18/2018 Deadpool 2 $100,000,000 NEW $242,000,000 NEW Fox
5/18/2018 Show Dogs $8,000,000 NEW $25,000,000 NEW Open Road

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