This week’s update takes a look at two films slated for release on June 14, both franchise titles looking to revive their respective properties with summer moviegoers. Also, in the chart below, check out our updated ranges for next week’s highly anticipated Avengers: Endgame.
Men In Black International
Opening Weekend Range: $30 – 50 million
PROS:
- 2012’s third film earned back some goodwill among fans of the franchise as strong word of mouth helped MIB3 generate a strong 3.28x multiplier off its $54.6 million opening weekend — resulting in a $179 million domestic total.
- Stars Chris Hemsworth and Tessa Thompson could help bring in some Marvel Cinematic Universe fans thanks to their well-received chemistry in Thor: Ragnarok, while the addition of Liam Neeson adds some attraction for older viewers.
- Director F. Gary Gray is no stranger to franchise success, having helmed The Fate of the Furious after the breakout success of Straight Outta Compton.
- The early summer market is notably short on comedies aimed at an adult audience, leaving an opening for this to do well if reviews and word of mouth turn out positive.
CONS:
- The absence of Will Smith, Tommy Lee Jones, and Josh Brolin — the faces of the franchise — is likely to disinterest many fans who helped turn the first three movies into box office hits.
- As recent franchise revivals like Ghostbusters (2016) and Terminator: Genisys have displayed, franchise revivals are tough sells unless there’s a fresh hook that can capture a variety of moviegoers. Much will depend on this film’s ability to interest millennials young and old.
- Building on the previous point, past franchises have shown fatigue to set in upon the fourth installment of a franchise — Shrek Forever After, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, and Transformers: Age of Extinction being recent examples among others.
Shaft
Opening Weekend Range: $25 – 40 million
PROS:
- The previous film in 2000 earned a strong $21.7 million opening / $70.3 million domestic run, which translates to approximately $37 million / $120 million with today’s ticket prices.
- Samuel L. Jackson’s return is a promising selling point given his popularity has only increased in the last 19 years, thanks largely to his turns in the Marvel Cinematic Universe.
- In addition to Jackson, the return of original Shaft actor Richard Roundtree and new comer Jesse Usher could make this a potentially entertaining option for multiple generations of moviegoers — especially with Father’s Day landing on Sunday of opening weekend.
CONS:
- Competing with Men In Black International‘s debut could be a slight challenge if that film’s marketing and pre-release buzz picks up in the coming weeks.
- Given a possible lack of familiarity among younger audiences, a less front-loaded run than is typical of sequels may be possible as older viewers aren’t always drivers of major opening weekends.
8-Week Tracking
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day Wide Release Tracking | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 4/26/2019 | Avengers: Endgame | $270,000,000 – $300,000,000+ | n/a | $660,000,000 – $730,000,000+ | n/a | 4,400 | Disney / Marvel |
| 5/3/2019 | The Intruder | $16,000,000 | 10% | $44,000,000 | 10% | 2,500 | Sony / Columbia |
| 5/3/2019 | Long Shot | $12,500,000 | $50,000,000 | 2,300 | Lionsgate / Summit | ||
| 5/3/2019 | Uglydolls | $13,500,000 | 4% | $48,000,000 | 9% | 3,600 | STX |
| 5/10/2019 | The Hustle | $14,500,000 | 21% | $41,000,000 | 21% | – | Mirror Films / MGM |
| 5/10/2019 | Pokemon: Detective Pikachu | $90,000,000 | $250,000,000 | – | Warner Bros. | ||
| 5/10/2019 | Poms | $11,000,000 | -12% | $40,000,000 | -11% | – | STX |
| 5/17/2019 | A Dog’s Journey | $11,000,000 | $39,500,000 | – | Sony / Columbia | ||
| 5/17/2019 | John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum | $35,000,000 | $100,000,000 | – | Lionsgate / Summit | ||
| 5/17/2019 | The Sun Is Also a Star | $12,000,000 | $36,000,000 | – | Warner Bros. | ||
| 5/24/2019 | Ad Astra | n/a | n/a | – | Fox | ||
| 5/24/2019 | Aladdin | $80,000,000 | -6% | $220,000,000 | -6% | – | Disney |
| 5/24/2019 | Booksmart | n/a | n/a | – | Annapurna Pictures | ||
| 5/24/2019 | BrightBurn | n/a | n/a | – | Sony / Columbia | ||
| 5/31/2019 | Godzilla: King of the Monsters | $54,000,000 | 13% | $144,000,000 | 11% | – | Warner Bros. |
| 5/31/2019 | Ma | $24,000,000 | $63,000,000 | – | Universal | ||
| 5/31/2019 | Rocketman | $37,000,000 | $165,000,000 | – | Paramount | ||
| 6/7/2019 | Dark Phoenix | $47,000,000 | $113,000,000 | – | Fox | ||
| 6/7/2019 | Late Night | n/a | n/a | Amazon Studios | |||
| 6/7/2019 | The Secret Life of Pets 2 | $80,000,000 | $263,000,000 | – | Universal | ||
| 6/14/2019 | Men In Black International | $39,000,000 | NEW | $107,000,000 | NEW | – | Sony / Columbia |
| 6/14/2019 | Shaft (2019) | $31,000,000 | NEW | $100,000,000 | NEW | – | Warner Bros. |
Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.
Contact us for information about subscribing to Boxoffice’s suite of forecasting and data services.
Alex Edghill & Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report
Share this post