Long Range Tracking: Men In Black International & Shaft; Avengers: Endgame Updated Forecasts

This week’s update takes a look at two films slated for release on June 14, both franchise titles looking to revive their respective properties with summer moviegoers. Also, in the chart below, check out our updated ranges for next week’s highly anticipated Avengers: Endgame.

Men In Black International
Opening Weekend Range: $30 – 50 million


  • 2012’s third film earned back some goodwill among fans of the franchise as strong word of mouth helped MIB3 generate a strong 3.28x multiplier off its $54.6 million opening weekend — resulting in a $179 million domestic total.
  • Stars Chris Hemsworth and Tessa Thompson could help bring in some Marvel Cinematic Universe fans thanks to their well-received chemistry in Thor: Ragnarok, while the addition of Liam Neeson adds some attraction for older viewers.
  • Director F. Gary Gray is no stranger to franchise success, having helmed The Fate of the Furious after the breakout success of Straight Outta Compton.
  • The early summer market is notably short on comedies aimed at an adult audience, leaving an opening for this to do well if reviews and word of mouth turn out positive.


  • The absence of Will Smith, Tommy Lee Jones, and Josh Brolin — the faces of the franchise — is likely to disinterest many fans who helped turn the first three movies into box office hits.
  • As recent franchise revivals like Ghostbusters (2016) and Terminator: Genisys have displayed, franchise revivals are tough sells unless there’s a fresh hook that can capture a variety of moviegoers. Much will depend on this film’s ability to interest millennials young and old.
  • Building on the previous point, past franchises have shown fatigue to set in upon the fourth installment of a franchise — Shrek Forever After, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, and Transformers: Age of Extinction being recent examples among others.

Opening Weekend Range: $25 – 40 million


  • The previous film in 2000 earned a strong $21.7 million opening / $70.3 million domestic run, which translates to approximately $37 million / $120 million with today’s ticket prices.
  • Samuel L. Jackson’s return is a promising selling point given his popularity has only increased in the last 19 years, thanks largely to his turns in the Marvel Cinematic Universe.
  • In addition to Jackson, the return of original Shaft actor Richard Roundtree and new comer Jesse Usher could make this a potentially entertaining option for multiple generations of moviegoers — especially with Father’s Day landing on Sunday of opening weekend.


  • Competing with Men In Black International‘s debut could be a slight challenge if that film’s marketing and pre-release buzz picks up in the coming weeks.
  • Given a possible lack of familiarity among younger audiences, a less front-loaded run than is typical of sequels may be possible as older viewers aren’t always drivers of major opening weekends.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Release Tracking % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
4/26/2019 Avengers: Endgame $270,000,000 – $300,000,000+ n/a $660,000,000 – $730,000,000+ n/a 4,400 Disney / Marvel
5/3/2019 The Intruder $16,000,000 10% $44,000,000 10% 2,500 Sony / Columbia
5/3/2019 Long Shot $12,500,000   $50,000,000   2,300 Lionsgate / Summit
5/3/2019 Uglydolls $13,500,000 4% $48,000,000 9% 3,600 STX
5/10/2019 The Hustle $14,500,000 21% $41,000,000 21% Mirror Films / MGM
5/10/2019 Pokemon: Detective Pikachu $90,000,000   $250,000,000   Warner Bros.
5/10/2019 Poms $11,000,000 -12% $40,000,000 -11% STX
5/17/2019 A Dog’s Journey $11,000,000   $39,500,000   Sony / Columbia
5/17/2019 John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum $35,000,000   $100,000,000   Lionsgate / Summit
5/17/2019 The Sun Is Also a Star $12,000,000   $36,000,000   Warner Bros.
5/24/2019 Ad Astra n/a   n/a   Fox
5/24/2019 Aladdin $80,000,000 -6% $220,000,000 -6% Disney
5/24/2019 Booksmart n/a   n/a   Annapurna Pictures
5/24/2019 BrightBurn n/a   n/a   Sony / Columbia
5/31/2019 Godzilla: King of the Monsters $54,000,000 13% $144,000,000 11% Warner Bros.
5/31/2019 Ma $24,000,000   $63,000,000   Universal
5/31/2019 Rocketman $37,000,000   $165,000,000   Paramount
6/7/2019 Dark Phoenix $47,000,000   $113,000,000   Fox
6/7/2019 Late Night n/a   n/a     Amazon Studios
6/7/2019 The Secret Life of Pets 2 $80,000,000   $263,000,000   Universal
6/14/2019 Men In Black International $39,000,000 NEW $107,000,000 NEW Sony / Columbia
6/14/2019 Shaft (2019) $31,000,000 NEW $100,000,000 NEW Warner Bros.

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.

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Alex Edghill & Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report

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