Long Range Tracking: ‘The Nun’ Looks to Continue ‘Conjuring’ Franchise Success with Possible $35M+ Debut

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This week’s report takes a look at the first full weekend of September 2018 as our look deeper into 3Q continues.

The Nun
Opening Weekend Range: $35 – 50 million

The Conjuring universe has proven incredibly successful over the last five years as the main films and two Annabelle spin-offs have an average domestic gross of nearly $107 million. This latest spin-off has generated encouraging buzz thus far as a fan favorite character from The Conjuring 2 becomes the focus. Social media growth to this point has outpaced Annabelle: Creation, and the recent surge by the horror genre at the box office makes us confident this one could easily prove to be another breakout.

Peppermint
Opening Weekend Range: $8 – 15 million

Jennifer Garner returns to her action roots in this revenge tale aiming to capture fans of films like Taken and The Foreigner. Early metrics are modest at this time, but there could be room for more upside as release approaches and marketing fully kicks in.

Updated Ranges

Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! ($28 – 38 million)
Unfriended: Dark Web ($6 – 10 million)
Mission: Impossible – Fallout ($55 – 69 million)
Teen Titans GO! to the Movies ($15 – 23 million)
The Darkest Minds ($7 – 13 million)

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
7/20/2018 The Equalizer 2 $27,000,000 8% $77,000,000 6% 3,000 Sony / Columbia
7/20/2018 Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! $35,000,000 9% $105,000,000 3,200 Universal
7/20/2018 Unfriended: Dark Web $7,000,000 -7% $14,000,000 -7% 1,500 OTL Releasing / BH Tilt
7/27/2018 Mission: Impossible – Fallout $63,000,000 -3% $200,000,000 4,000 Paramount
7/27/2018 Teen Titans Go! to the Movies $16,000,000 -9% $50,000,000 -9% 3,400 Warner Bros.
8/3/2018 Disney’s Christopher Robin $33,000,000 10% $121,000,000 10% Disney
8/3/2018 The Darkest Minds $9,000,000 -25% $28,000,000 -26% Fox
8/3/2018 Searching n/a n/a Sony / Screen Gems
8/3/2018 The Spy Who Dumped Me $17,000,000 $63,000,000 Lionsgate
8/10/2018 Dog Days n/a n/a LD Entertainment
8/10/2018 The Meg $14,000,000 $37,000,000 Warner Bros.
8/15/2018 Crazy Rich Asians $13,000,000 $42,000,000 Warner Bros.
8/17/2018 Alpha $8,500,000 $24,000,000 Sony / Studio 8
8/17/2018 Mile 22 $15,000,000 $44,000,000 STX
8/17/2018 Three Seconds $4,000,000 $9,600,000 Aviron
8/24/2018 A.X.L. $3,000,000 $7,500,000 Global Road
8/24/2018 The Happytime Murders $18,000,000 $47,000,000 STX
8/24/2018 Slender Man $19,000,000 $51,000,000 Sony / Screen Gems
8/24/2018 Stuck n/a n/a Freestyle Releasing
8/31/2018 Kin $7,000,000 $20,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
8/31/2018 Ya Veremos n/a n/a Pantelion
9/7/2018 City of Lies n/a n/a Global Road
9/7/2018 The Nun $40,000,000 NEW $96,000,000 NEW Warner Bros. / New Line
9/7/2018 Peppermint $12,000,000 NEW $33,500,000 NEW STX Entertainment

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