Long Range Tracking: ‘Rampage’ & ‘Super Troopers 2’ Early Forecasts; ‘Tomb Raider’ & ‘Death Wish’ Trending Up

This week’s report takes an early look at two wide releases slated for April 20 and how they are currently expected to perform at the box office during the penultimate weekend before summer. Check out the eight-week forecast below, including our updated tracking for several upcoming releases.

Leading the charge that weekend will be the latest Dwayne Johnson actioner, Rampage, which is based on the 1980s era arcade game of the same name. Given the mixed history of game-to-film adaptations, Johnson’s star power will be crucial to making this one succeed. Director Brad Peyton previously helmed the leading man with great commercial success in 2015’s San Andreas, but social media buzz is fairly modest compared for Rampage compared to that and Johnson’s bigger hits. Opening three weeks after Ready Player One and two weeks before Avengers: Infinity War could further soften potential impact in the late spring marketplace.

Meanwhile, Super Troopers 2 will finally make its way to theaters after years of demand and anticipation from the original film’s cult following. Most of the franchise’s Facebook footprint is a byproduct of that aforementioned first film, while Twitter buzz is generally soft at this point in time. Being released under the Fox Searchlight banner, a major marketing campaign on the level of high profile comedic sequels shouldn’t be expected until closer to release.

Focus Features also has Jason Reitman and Diablo Cody’s Tully slated to open on April 20. Forecasts will follow closer to that date when/if the extent of its planned wide release is confirmed.

Current 8-Week Tracking:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
3/2/2018 Death Wish $17,000,000 13% $43,500,000 12% 2,700 Annapurna / MGM
3/2/2018 Red Sparrow $20,000,000 -7% $60,000,000 -9% 2,900 Fox
3/9/2018 Gringo $4,000,000 $10,000,000 1,500 STXfilms
3/9/2018 The Hurricane Heist $5,000,000 $12,500,000 2,300 Entertainment Studios
3/9/2018 Strangers: Prey at Night $7,000,000 17% $15,000,000 17% 2,300 Aviron
3/9/2018 A Wrinkle In Time $48,000,000 -8% $142,000,000 -8% 3,800 Disney
3/16/2018 I Can Only Imagine $1,500,000 NEW $3,000,000 NEW Roadside Attractions
3/16/2018 Love, Simon $13,000,000 $37,000,000 -8% Fox
3/16/2018 Tomb Raider $24,000,000 9% $60,000,000 9% Warner Bros.
3/23/2018 Midnight Sun $6,000,000 $15,000,000 Open Road
3/23/2018 Pacific Rim Uprising $20,000,000 $49,000,000 Universal
3/23/2018 Paul, Apostle of Christ $14,500,000 $51,000,000 Sony / Columbia
3/23/2018 Sherlock Gnomes $12,000,000 $45,000,000 Paramount
3/23/2018 Unsane n/a n/a Bleecker Street
3/29/2018 Ready Player One $54,000,000 $180,000,000 Warner Bros.
3/30/2018 Acrimony $19,000,000 $46,000,000 Lionsgate
3/30/2018 Bad Samaritan n/a n/a Electric Entertainment
3/30/2018 God’s Not Dead: A Light In Darkness $6,000,000 $15,400,000 Pure Flix
4/6/2018 Blockers $19,000,000 $63,000,000 Universal
4/6/2018 Chappaquiddick n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
4/6/2018 A Quiet Place $20,000,000 $64,000,000 Paramount
4/13/2018 Overboard $14,000,000 $39,000,000 Lionsgate / Pantelion
4/13/2018 Truth or Dare $23,000,000 $47,000,000 Universal
4/20/2018 Rampage $25,000,000 NEW $62,000,000 NEW Warner Bros. / New Line
4/20/2018 Super Troopers 2 $5,000,000 NEW $10,000,000 NEW Fox Searchlight
4/20/2018 Tully n/a NEW n/a NEW Focus Features

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