Long Range Tracking: Shazam!, Pet Sematary, & The Best of Enemies

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This week’s report takes a first look at the beginning of Q2 2019 with the release of three studio titles on April 5.

Shazam!
Opening Weekend Range: $40 – 60 million

PROS:

  • The promise of a coming-of-age entry in the DC film universe could provide a welcome change of pace for fans and general audiences alike, especially with initial comparisons to the modern classic Big. Appeal to teens could be particularly notable, which could drive significant upside to current forecasts.
  • Early social media buzz and trailer reactions have been very encouraging. The film earned a 77 percent interest score on Trailer Impact, not far behind the 83 percent of Aquaman nearly two months from its release.
  • This film’s strong comedic approach could represent another fresh aspect to attract moviegoers looking for a pure dose of popcorn fun from the genre leading up to a “darker” Avengers: Endgame later in the month.

CONS:

  • By and large, the character isn’t widely known outside of DC fans. That may not be a problem in the long run if reviews are strong, but it could translate to longer legs as opposed to the big debut typical of many superhero films.
  • Releasing one week after Dumbo, there may be competition for some of the family audience that often drives superhero titles. The aforementioned Avengers sequel opening three weeks later will represent a looming threat for that audience as well.

Pet Sematary
Opening Weekend Range: $20 – 30 million

PROS:

  • As noted many times in recent years, the horror genre has never been more lucrative than it is with today’s audiences.
  • The added fan base of Stephen King and fans of the original 1989 film and its sequel introduce an element of nostalgia that might benefit this remake’s opening.

CONS:

  • Releasing two weeks after Us could prove challenging if Jordan Peele’s next film earns strong audience approval.

The Best of Enemies
Opening Weekend Range: $7 – 12 million

PROS:

  • Taraji P. Henson and Sam Rockwell are widely respected actors whose fans may be intrigued by the chemistry the pair have on screen.
  • The spring slate is largely devoid of adult-leaning dramas from major studios, leaving an open space for this to catch on if reception hits the mark.

CONS:

  • Similar dramas like Marshall and Black or White weren’t able to catch on at the box office despite their important subject matter, leaving us on the cautious end of expectations for now.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Release Tracking % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
2/13/2019 Happy Death Day 2U $20,000,000 $52,000,000 3,000 Universal
2/13/2019 Isn’t It Romantic $15,000,000 $57,000,000 3,300 Warner Bros.
2/14/2019 Alita: Battle Angel $17,000,000 6% $48,000,000 6% 3,700 Fox
2/22/2019 Fighting with My Family $8,000,000 $25,000,000 2,200 MGM
2/22/2019 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World $49,000,000 $173,000,000 4,200 Universal
3/1/2019 Greta n/a n/a Focus Features
3/1/2019 Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral $27,000,000 $68,000,000 Lionsgate
3/8/2019 Captain Marvel $160,000,000 $440,000,000 Disney / Marvel
3/15/2019 No Manches Frida 2 n/a n/a Lionsgate / Pantelion Films
3/15/2019 Five Feet Apart $11,000,000 $37,000,000 Lionsgate
3/15/2019 Wonder Park $8,000,000 $30,000,000 Paramount
3/22/2019 The Informer n/a n/a Aviron
3/22/2019 Us $42,000,000 $135,000,000 Universal
3/29/2019 Dumbo (2019) $59,000,000 $175,000,000 Disney
3/29/2019 Hotel Mumbai n/a n/a Bleecker Street
3/29/2019 Unplanned n/a n/a Pure Flix
4/5/2019 The Best of Enemies $10,000,000 NEW $30,000,000 NEW STX
4/5/2019 Pet Sematary (2019) $28,000,000 NEW $65,000,000 NEW Paramount
4/5/2019 Shazam! $45,000,000 NEW $144,000,000 NEW Warner Bros.

Tracking and forecasts are subject to change each week as marketing, reviews, and other factors are taken into consideration.

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Alex Edghill contributed to this report

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