Long Range Tracking: Spider-Man: Far From Home Looks to Web $200M+ 6-Day Domestic Launch in July

Following the monumental story developments of Avengers: Endgame, Marvel Studios is set to close out the third phase of the MCU with the highly anticipated follow-up to Sony’s Spider-Man: Homecoming. How big will the webslinger’s latest cinematic adventure be?

!!! WARNING: Avengers: Endgame spoilers ahead !!!

Spider-Man: Far From Home
Opening Weekend Range: $90 – 120 million (3-day) / $190 – 230 million (6-day)

PROS:

  • As Endgame has crushed box office records around the world, some of the most memorable and heartfelt moments of that film and Infinity War have involved or centered around Peter Parker/Spider-Man. Much like past Marvel solo sequels have seen “bumps” at the box office (such as the Iron Man, Captain America, and Thor trilogies) post-Avengers releases, something similar is safe to expect with Far From Home given that its newest trailer promises a direct tie to Endgame‘s finale and the emotional fallout for key main and supporting characters.
  • Homecoming was one of summer’s biggest hits two years ago as it earned $334.2 million domestically — no small feat for a film that had to reboot the entire franchise for a second time in just half a decade and earn back some of the audience that propelled Sam Raimi’s original 2000s-era blockbuster trilogy. That goodwill for Homecoming and Tom Holland’s charismatic performance will carry over here, not to mention the fact that Spidey — as a brand — remains one of the most universally popular superheroes across all age groups.
  • Trailer Impact surveys position early tracking on par with that of Captain Marvel at the same point in the pre-release cycle. Far From Home claims 63 percent “definitely interested” and another 27 percent “interested” 57 days out. That’s nearly identical to Captain‘s 65 percent and 24 percent scores on the respective metrics when 60 days out from opening. Both titles claimed an 18 percent recall score among surveyed audiences.
  • The new full-length trailer (seen below) became Sony’s most viewed in studio history with over 135 million views in its first day of release, besting this film’s own teaser trailer and Homecoming itself as Sony’s most successful online trailer release to date.
  • Social media trends have been strong for months as fans have speculated what the post-Endgame future holds for Spider-Man and the Marvel Cinematic Universe at-large. That should only serve to continue drumming up buzz for the next two months.
  • The promising addition of Jake Gyllenhaal’s Mysterio (another popular villain from Spidey’s diverse rogues gallery), plus the return of fan favorites Samuel L. Jackson, Jon Favreau, Cobie Smulders, Zendaya, Marisa Tomei, and Jacob Batalon round out the strong ensemble moviegoers have come to expect from Marvel.

CONS:

  • There isn’t much working against the film at this point. Reviews will be somewhat key toward longevity, as always, and the biggest source of competition will be Disney’s Toy Story 4 (still aiming for youngsters in its third weekend) and The Lion King (which is shaping up to be a major late summer blockbuster when it opens in Spidey’s third frame).

Other Notable Updates

  • Annabelle Comes Home‘s opening weekend projection below has been adjusted to reflect its release date change from Friday, June 28 to Wednesday, June 26.
  • Due to Far From Home‘s shift from a traditional Friday opening to a Tuesday, July 2 release — and with the Fourth of July holiday skewing historical movie-going patterns — opening weekend forecasts for the latest Spider-Man film will be more challenging to pinpoint than usual.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Release Tracking % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
5/17/2019 A Dog’s Journey $13,000,000   $46,700,000   3,200 Universal
5/17/2019 John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum $38,500,000 4% $110,000,000 4% 3,600 Lionsgate / Summit
5/17/2019 The Sun Is Also a Star $8,500,000 -15% $24,700,000 -15% 2,100 Warner Bros.
5/24/2019 Aladdin $67,000,000 2% $188,000,000 2% 4,000 Disney
5/24/2019 Booksmart n/a   n/a   n/a United Artists Releasing
5/24/2019 BrightBurn $10,000,000   $23,000,000   2,800 Sony / Columbia
5/31/2019 Godzilla: King of the Monsters $54,000,000   $144,000,000     Warner Bros.
5/31/2019 Ma $23,000,000 -4% $60,000,000 -5%   Universal
5/31/2019 Rocketman $40,000,000 8% $165,000,000     Paramount
6/7/2019 Dark Phoenix $47,000,000   $113,000,000     Fox
6/7/2019 Late Night n/a   n/a     Amazon Studios
6/7/2019 The Secret Life of Pets 2 $80,000,000   $263,000,000     Universal
6/14/2019 Men In Black International $39,000,000   $107,000,000     Sony / Columbia
6/14/2019 Shaft (2019) $31,000,000   $100,000,000     Warner Bros.
6/21/2019 Anna n/a   n/a     Lionsgate / Summit
6/21/2019 Child’s Play (2019) $17,000,000   $42,500,000     Orion Pictures
6/21/2019 Toy Story 4 $113,000,000   $390,000,000     Disney / Pixar
6/26/2019 Annabelle Comes Home $31,000,000 -21% $101,000,000     Warner Bros. / New Line
6/28/2019 Yesterday n/a   n/a     Universal
7/2/2019 Spider-Man: Far from Home $90,000,000 – $120,000,000 NEW $405,000,000+ NEW   Sony / Columbia / Marvel Studios

Check out the new Spider-Man: Far From Home trailer:

Contact us for information about subscribing to Boxoffice’s suite of forecasting and data services.

Alex Edghill & Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report

News Stories