Long Range Tracking: ‘Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,’ ‘Mortal Engines,’ ‘The Mule,’ & ‘Second Act’

October 20 Update: Shortly after this report’s publication yesterday, STX delayed Second Act‘s release by one week to December 21.  Our updated opening weekend tracking (down from $10 million when slated for December 14) is listed in the chart below.


This week’s report takes a look at the December 14 – 16 frame, currently slated to see four wide releases.

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Opening Weekend Range: $17 – 27 million

The brand name is likely to help this animated take serve as a strong option for young viewers in the market through the remainder of the holiday season, although it will probably still be contending with The Grinch and Ralph Breaks the Internet for general family audiences. Early social media buzz and Trailer Impact metrics are encouraging, with the latter earning a 79 percent Average Positive Interest score this week.

Mortal Engines
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million

We’re conservative on this adaptation due in large part to modest social media activity following its trailer campaign thus far. Peter Jackson’s producing role has been featured heavily in marketing, which will be an asset toward attracting fans of The Lord of the Rings films, but the film needs to build strong word of mouth through Christmas and New Year’s to compete with action-driven releases like Aquaman and Bumblebee. Another possible advantage could be that it offers something relatively new in a month filled with more established franchise/universe titles.

The Mule
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 20 million

Tracking is very preliminary at this stage with the film and its trailer only having been announced in recent weeks. Still, we’re confident enough in the potential of star/director Clint Eastwood’s latest project to offer up initial forecasts thanks to encouraging trailer reactions. Bradley Cooper’s supporting role will be an added advantage, and an award season run could give the crime pic long life into early 2019.

Second Act
Opening Weekend Range: $8 – 13 million

Representing the only release of this weekend targeting a predominately female audience will help it serve as a fair counter-programmer. The release of Mary Poppins Returns five days later will likely cut into that target demographic, but there could still be room to attract adult women during the holiday corridor.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
10/26/2018 Hunter Killer $7,500,000 -17% $20,000,000 -23% 2,600 Lionsgate / Summit
10/26/2018 Indivisible $2,000,000 $6,000,000 n/a Pure Flix
10/26/2018 Johnny English Strikes Again $3,250,000 -19% $7,100,000 -19% 500 Universal
11/2/2018 Bohemian Rhapsody $35,000,000 $110,000,000 3,400 Fox
11/2/2018 Tyler Perry’s Nobody’s Fool $13,500,000 -10% $36,000,000 -10% 2,000 Paramount
11/2/2018 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms $21,000,000 $80,000,000 3,300 Disney
11/2/2018 Suspiria (Wide) n/a n/a n/a Amazon Studios
11/9/2018 The Girl in the Spider’s Web $14,000,000 -7% $40,000,000 -11% Sony / Columbia
11/9/2018 Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch $70,000,000 -11% $290,000,000 -5% Universal
11/9/2018 Overlord $10,500,000 -25% $30,000,000 -29% Paramount
11/16/2018 Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald $75,000,000 $222,000,000 Warner Bros.
11/16/2018 Instant Family $18,000,000 n/a Paramount
11/16/2018 A Private War (Expansion) n/a n/a Aviron
11/16/2018 Widows $20,000,000 $78,000,000 Fox
11/21/2018 Creed 2 $23,000,000 $80,000,000 MGM
11/21/2018 The Front Runner (Wide Expansion) n/a n/a Sony
11/21/2018 Ralph Breaks the Internet $50,000,000 $200,000,000 Disney
11/21/2018 Robin Hood $9,500,000 $26,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
11/21/2018 Green Book n/a n/a Universal
11/30/2018 The Possession of Hannah Grace n/a n/a Sony / Columbia
12/7/2018 The Silence n/a n/a Global Road
12/14/2018 Mortal Engines $16,000,000 NEW $55,000,000 NEW Universal
12/14/2018 The Mule $14,000,000 NEW $80,000,000 NEW Warner Bros.
12/21/2018 Second Act $9,000,000 NEW $40,000,000 NEW STX
12/14/2018 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse $22,000,000 NEW $90,000,000 NEW Sony / Columbia

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