Long Range Tracking: ‘A Star Is Born’ & ‘Venom’ (Updated)

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August 16 Update: Following a deeper dive into new data, we’re revisiting initial forecasts for Venom in a rare mid-week update. Check here for further analysis and revised forecasts on the upcoming release.

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The fourth quarter of 2018 is poised for a strong start as this week’s report takes an early look at the prospects of two October 5 releases.

A Star Is Born
Opening Weekend Range: $25 – 35 million

Social media buzz is steadily growing for this remake thanks to strong trailer reception over the summer. The mega-star power of director/actor Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga could prove to be irresistible for audiences even beyond their fans. If award season contention follows, long box office legs wouldn’t be hard to develop — especially considering the renaissance of successful musicals in recent years. The breakout potential of this one is hard to ignore right now, putting current forecasts in bullish territory.

Venom
Opening Weekend Range: $30 – 50 million

Since this film has no connection to the current Spider-Man in Disney’s sprawling Marvel Cinematic Universe, its biggest asset will be its star — Tom Hardy — who is compiling an impressive list of opening weekend performances (his last three starring or co-starring wide releases each opened north of $39 million domestically). Venom, of course, is one of the most popular anti-heroes in comic book history, so long-time fans of the character will provide additional opening weekend ammo.

While Venom‘s social media conversation is on fire currently, the ratio of positive-to-negative comments is much lower than we’d like to see as many fans are concerned with news that the film underwent extensive re-shoots and will be rated PG-13 — eschewing the more mature and graphic elements of the character in favor of a teen-friendly rating. In an era where Deadpool and Logan have proven the validity of comic book characters being allowed to stay true to their R-rated roots, that provides some trepidation among fans — and, by extension, long-term playability — until we get an idea of what actual word of mouth will be like.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
8/15/2018 Crazy Rich Asians $14,500,000 12% $47,000,000 12% 3,200 Warner Bros.
8/17/2018 Alpha $7,000,000 -13% $20,000,000 -12% 2,500 Sony / Studio 8
8/17/2018 Mile 22 $18,000,000 6% $55,000,000 6% 3,400 STX
8/24/2018 A.X.L. $1,750,000 $4,400,000 1,700 Global Road
8/24/2018 The Happytime Murders $15,500,000 $40,500,000 2,800 STX
8/24/2018 Searching n/a n/a 2,000 Sony / Screen Gems
8/29/2018 Operation Finale $6,000,000 NEW $19,000,000 NEW MGM
8/31/2018 Kin $5,500,000 -8% $13,800,000 -8% Lionsgate / Summit
8/31/2018 Ya Veremos n/a n/a Pantelion
9/7/2018 God Bless the Broken Road n/a n/a Freestyle Releasing
9/7/2018 The Nun $40,000,000 $96,000,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
9/7/2018 Peppermint $12,000,000 $33,500,000 STX Entertainment
9/14/2018 The Predator (2018) $28,000,000 $65,000,000 Fox
9/14/2018 A Simple Favor $14,000,000 $40,000,000 Lionsgate
9/14/2018 Unbroken: Path to Redemption $2,000,000 $4,900,000 Pure Flix
9/14/2018 White Boy Rick $7,500,000 $24,000,000 Sony / Studio 8
9/21/2018 Fahrenheit 11/9 n/a n/a Briarcliff
9/21/2018 The House with a Clock In Its Walls $24,000,000 $79,000,000 Universal
9/21/2018 Life Itself n/a n/a Amazon Studios
9/28/2018 Hell Fest $9,500,000 $22,000,000 Lionsgate / CBS Films
9/28/2018 Little Women (2018) n/a n/a Pure Flix
9/28/2018 Night School (2018) $17,500,000 $55,000,000 Universal
9/28/2018 Smallfoot $23,000,000 $80,000,000 Warner Bros.
10/5/2018 A Star Is Born $30,000,000 NEW $117,000,000 NEW Warner Bros.
10/5/2018 Venom (2018) $40,000,000 NEW $85,000,000 NEW Sony / Columbia

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