Long Range Tracking: The Intruder, Long Shot, & Uglydolls

This week’s report takes a first look at the month of May, which may be a challenge for some films opening in the wake of Avengers: Endgame.

The Intruder
Opening Weekend Range: $11 – 16 million

PROS:

  • Counter-programming the big Marvel blockbuster with an urban thriller could be a smart play, especially with Sony’s past success in the genre.

CONS:

  • Following the success of Breaking In and Don’t Breathe, audiences may draw comparisons between this film and those similar genre pics.

Long Shot
Opening Weekend Range: $13 – 18 million

PROS:

  • Seth Rogen has a solid track record with comedies friendly to adult date night audiences, including Neighbors and Knocked Up.
  • Early buzz around the film is encouraging, particularly the chemistry between Charlize Theron and Rogen.

CONS:

  • Several films aiming to counter-program in May (such as The Hustle and Poms) will be targeting adult audiences and female viewers, creating potential for overlap.

Uglydolls
Opening Weekend Range: $7 – 12 million

PROS:

  • This will provide an option for parents with young kids not old enough for the more mature content of Avengers: Endgame.

CONS:

  • Aside from the Avengers shadow, the following week’s Detective Pikachu provides another significant source of competition for young audiences.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Release Tracking % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
3/15/2019 Captive State n/a   n/a   2,200 Universal
3/15/2019 Five Feet Apart $12,000,000 -8% $36,000,000 -8% 2,600 Lionsgate
3/15/2019 Wonder Park $9,000,000   $34,000,000   3,500 Paramount
3/22/2019 Us $44,000,000   $135,000,000   3,500 Universal
3/29/2019 Dumbo (2019) $60,000,000 9% $179,000,000 9% Disney
3/29/2019 Hotel Mumbai n/a   n/a   Bleecker Street
3/29/2019 Unplanned $1,500,000 NEW $3,500,000 NEW Pure Flix
4/5/2019 The Best of Enemies $10,000,000   $30,000,000   STX
4/5/2019 Pet Sematary (2019) $28,000,000   $65,000,000   Paramount
4/5/2019 Shazam! $48,000,000   $144,000,000   Warner Bros.
4/12/2019 After (2019) n/a   n/a   Aviron
4/12/2019 Hellboy (2019) $20,000,000 -9% $42,000,000 -9% Lionsgate / Summit
4/12/2019 Little $15,000,000   $43,000,000   Universal
4/12/2019 Missing Link $10,000,000   $39,000,000   Annapurna Pictures
4/17/2019 Breakthrough $15,000,000   $56,000,000   Fox
4/17/2019 Penguins $4,500,000   $17,500,000   Disney / Disneynature
4/19/2019 The Curse of La Llorona $20,000,000   $45,000,000   Warner Bros. (New Line)
4/26/2019 Avengers: Endgame $265,000,000   $695,000,000   Disney / Marvel
5/3/2019 The Intruder $14,500,000 NEW $40,000,000 NEW Sony / Columbia
5/3/2019 Long Shot $16,000,000 NEW $60,000,000 NEW Lionsgate / Summit
5/3/2019 Uglydolls $8,000,000 NEW $27,000,000 NEW STX

Alex Edghill contributed to this report

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.

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