Opening Weekend Forecast: £8M – £10M
Theatrical Total Forecast: £30M – £35M
U.K.-based cinema advertising company Pearl & Dean has released their predicted opening range for Lionsgate’s Michael, opening in the U.K./Ireland market this weekend.
Musical biopics have been big business in the last decade, with the likes of Back To Black about Amy Winehouse (£12.3 million); Elton John’s Rocketman (£23 million); Bob Marley: One Love (£17 million); and last year’s Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown (£12.4 million) drawing in moviegoers. This biopic of the King of Pop himself, Michael Jackson, will likely outperform all these and become one of the stand-out blockbusters of 2026.
Michael comes from producer Graham King, one of the names behind the smash Queen biopic Bohemian Rhapsody (£55 million). Trailers suggest King is leaning into a similar playbook this time around by emphasizing Jackson’s music and high-octane stage performances, while eliding the controversial areas of his life. In short, Michael is aiming at the broadest possible audience with its crowd-pleasing tone…and Michael Jackson’s songs are about as crowd-pleasing as they come. Jackson is as popular today with Gen Alpha as he is with Gen X, giving Michael a broad appeal across generations.
There is, of course, a cloud of controversy in the form of historical child sexual abuses which hangs over Jackson’s legacy and even troubled the film’s production. This could limit the top-end box office, with some audience members not turning up out of protest and a possible backlash undercutting repeat viewings.
However, with the release imminent negative press has been muted. Furthermore, the runaway success of the MJ: The Musical (which won the Best New Musical Tony in America and has been extended multiple times in London’s West End) shows the Thriller singer’s continued broad appeal and clear commercial viability.
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