Weekend Box Office Forecast: Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves and John Wick: Chapter 4 Look to Dominate Final Frame of Q1

Photo Credits: Paramount ("Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves"); Lionsgate ("John Wick: Chapter 4")

A strong March comes to a close this weekend with one last major release to finish off 2023’s first quarter, Paramount’s Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves.

This weekend’s analysis and forecasts:

PROS:

  • Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves is receiving very encouraging early audience and critic scores with 94 percent and 90 percent, respectively, on Rotten Tomatoes as of Wednesday morning.

    The film’s multiple sneak previews leading up to opening weekend have helped build buzz among fans as tracking, social metrics, and pre-sales continue to gain momentum. The film is pacing ahead of Shazam! Fury of the Gods across key demographic statistics.

    Paramount will begin traditional previews at 3pm Thursday with a full complement of premium format screens. Grosses from several preview showings dating back to March 22 are expected to be included in the weekend haul, though that is not confirmed yet.

    The studio expects over $30 million for the opening frame.
  • Last weekend’s top dog, John Wick: Chapter 4, will aim to land as softly as possible from its franchise-best start — and second highest-ever, R-rated March debut — of $73.8 million. Historically, the franchise has weathered competition very well and generated strong lifetime multiples.
  • Angel Studios will aim to get a head start on Easter (April 9) with the release of their faith-based drama, His Only Son, at around 1,900 locations (an unconfirmed but estimated count). They previously partnered with Fathom Events for the The Chosen theatrical releases.
  • Also debuting this weekend are Variance Films’ Spinning Gold and Focus Features’ A Thousand and One, though forecasts are not being offered at this time. A Good Person is also expanding via UAR.

CONS:

  • As outlined in prior long range forecasts, Dungeons & Dragons as a brand has some hurdles to clear with the mainstream audience. The 2000 theatrical adaptation was a notorious misfire, and a competitive slate of holdovers in the market could slightly dampen the debut weekend — although staying power is likely to be in play.
  • John Wick: Chapter 4 will lose a big chunk of its premium screen prices to D&D this weekend, but healthy word of mouth should still propel it outside of that early speed bump.

Weekend Ranges

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
Opening Weekend Range: $32 – 42 million

His Only Son
Opening Weekend Range: $1 – 4 million

Weekend Forecast & Location Count Projections

Current projection ranges call for a 15 to 24 percent decline from last weekend’s $112.2 million top ten aggregate.

Film Studio 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, April 2 Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves Paramount Pictures $35,000,000 $35,000,000 ~3,850 NEW
John Wick: Chapter 4 Lionsgate $30,600,000 $124,900,000 ~3,855 -59%
Creed III MGM $5,300,000 $148,900,000 ~3,000 -35%
Shazam! Fury of the Gods Warner Bros. Pictures $5,100,000 $54,000,000 ~3,400 -45%
Scream VI Paramount Pictures $4,700,000 $97,500,000 ~3,000 -44%
His Only Son Angel Studios $2,700,000 $2,700,000 ~1,900 NEW
65 Sony Pictures / Columbia $1,900,000 $30,900,000 ~2,100 -41%
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Disney & Marvel Studios $1,500,000 $212,300,000 ~1,500 -38%
Jesus Revolution Lionsgate $1,200,000 $51,100,000 ~1,500 -39%
Cocaine Bear Universal Pictures $1,100,000 $64,000,000 ~1,300 -47%

All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.

Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.

The above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.

Photo Credits: Paramount ("Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves"); Lionsgate ("John Wick: Chapter 4")
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