The penultimate frame of the month sees one major studio release target a first place debut in an otherwise underwhelming early fall box office space as September’s slate of sequels continues to roll out.
EXPEND4BLES
Lionsgate
September 22, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $10M-$15M
PROS:
- With little in the way of direct competition, Expend4bles‘ core adult male fan base could turn out this weekend. A healthy footprint in premium screens should give it an additional boost to average ticket price. Pre-sale metrics for the weekend overall are currently pacing slightly ahead of January’s Plane.
- Holdovers should continue to experience relatively soft declines in most cases. Barbie, in particular, will gain some advantage with the addition of Imax screens to its footprint, while Dumb Money will expand into moderate release after its $220,947 platform debut in eight venues last weekend and Neon’s It Lives Inside aims for the arthouse horror crowd.
CONS:
- As outlined in prior reports, the Expendables franchise has been absent from big screens for nine years and has likely lost much of its original hook with today’s audiences.
2014’s third installment already drew significantly diminished returns on the domestic side (down 54% from the second film’s $85 million tally to $39.3 million), and this follow-up’s absence of several key cast members from the first three films is likely to further weaken interest. Competing with NFL and college football this weekend (including Thursday’s previews) won’t be an easy task, either.
- Although last week’s box office was up 74 percent from the same period last year, when major studio releases were hard to come by, this month’s own light release slate still leaves the holdover market wanting for more, trailing the comparable 2019 period by 35 percent last week (measured Saturday through Friday).
Current projection ranges call for a 19% decrease from the comparable weekend’s top ten aggregate of $55.8 million in 2022 and a 60% decrease from 2019’s $113.4 million frame.
| Film | Studio | 3-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, September 24 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) | 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd |
| Expend4bles | Lionsgate | $11,700,000 | $11,700,000 | ~3,400 | NEW |
| The Nun II | Warner Bros. Pictures | $8,900,000 | $70,000,000 | ~3,600 | -39% |
| A Haunting in Venice | 20th Century Studios | $7,700,000 | $27,200,000 | ~3,305 | -46% |
| The Equalizer 3 | Sony & Columbia Pictures | $4,400,000 | $80,900,000 | ~3,400 | -39% |
| My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 | Focus Features | $3,100,000 | $23,900,000 | ~3,300 | -35% |
| Barbie | Warner Bros. Pictures | $3,000,000 | $630,300,000 | ~3,000 | -21% |
| It Lives Inside | NEON | $2,000,000 | $2,000,000 | ~2,200 | NEW |
| Blue Beetle | Warner Bros. Pictures | $1,700,000 | $69,800,000 | ~2,200 | -32% |
| Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem | Paramount Pictures | $1,500,000 | $116,200,000 | ~2,000 | -26% |
| Dumb Money | Sony & Columbia Pictures | $1,400,000 | $1,700,000 | ~675 | 532% |
| Gran Turismo | Sony Pictures | $1,400,000 | $41,700,000 | ~1,800 | -41% |
| Oppenheimer | Universal Pictures | $1,400,000 | $321,100,000 | ~1,500 | -33% |
All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.
Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.
The above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.
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