March’s box office rebound continues this weekend with a counter-programming family option to go alongside the sophomore frame of Dune: Part Two‘s breakout sequel run.
Kung Fu Panda 4
Universal
March 8, 2024 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $44M-$54M
WEEKEND PROS:
- As the first high-profile animated and family release to hit cinemas since December’s Migration and Wonka, families are expected to turn out for Kung Fu Panda 4 in healthy numbers. Pre-sales are pacing ahead of Trolls Band Together at the same point before release. A partial PLF footprint will be helpful as well.
- Dune: Part Two excelled with an $82.5 million debut last weekend, putting it on the high end of expectations. Its superb reception and PLF strength should fuel staying power in chase weekends from here onward as the sequel’s Rotten Tomatoes critic and audience scores stand at 93 percent and 95 percent, respectively.
- Angel Studios returns with another strong pre-seller in Cabrini that should bring out the core of the distributor’s faith-based audience.
Dune: Part Two
Warner Bros.
Second Weekend Range: $40M-$47M
WEEKEND CONS:
- As a 16-year-old franchise that has also spun off into several television series and specials, Kung Fu Panda as a brand is certainly a candidate for some diminished returns as some of today’s kiddie audiences may not be as familiar with the popular series as those who grew up during the IP’s peak in 2008 and 2011.
- If there’s any caution when assessing Dune: Part Two‘s expected staying power, it mainly takes the form of overreliance on adult male audiences (59 percent men and 64 percent over the age of 25 on opening weekend) and PLF formats (48 percent). The latter stat could continue to backload screening demand if casual audiences wait for a more optimal way to experience the film.
Cabrini
Angel Studios
Opening Weekend Range: $3M-$6M
Current projection ranges call for a 7% increase from the comparable weekend’s top ten aggregate of $113.4 million in 2023 and a 39% decrease from 2019’s $198.1 million during the same calendar frames.
| Film | Studio | 3-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, March 10 | 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd |
| Kung Fu Panda 4 | Universal Pictures | $48,300,000 | $48,300,000 | NEW |
| Dune: Part Two | Warner Bros. Pictures | $43,800,000 | $152,900,000 | -47% |
| Imaginary | Lionsgate | $10,600,000 | $10,600,000 | NEW |
| Bob Marley: One Love | Paramount Pictures | $5,800,000 | $91,200,000 | -22% |
| Cabrini | Angel Studios | $5,200,000 | $5,200,000 | NEW |
| Ordinary Angels | Lionsgate & Kingdom Story Company | $2,000,000 | $16,000,000 | -46% |
| Madame Web | Sony & Columbia Pictures | $1,800,000 | $43,200,000 | -43% |
| The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 7 – 8 | Fathom Events | $1,600,000 | $7,300,000 | -51% |
| Migration | Universal Pictures & Illumination | $1,500,000 | $125,700,000 | -40% |
| Wonka | Warner Bros. Pictures | $1,000,000 | $218,200,000 | -41% |
All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.
Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.
The above table does not necessarily represent exact ranking as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.
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