After a strong Memorial Day frame led by Little Mermaid‘s positive start, June is set to kick summer box office to the next level with the highly anticipated release of Sony’s Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.
If there were any doubt that families have been eager for more content, the massive run of The Super Mario Bros. Movie expelled it over the past two months, setting a stage for the next tentpole animation to command audience interest. Thanks to the breakout success of 2018’s Into the Spider-Verse, which earned $190.2 million domestically, that’s exactly what looks to happen this coming weekend with the frontrunner for summer’s animation title swinging into more than 4,200 theaters.
Any further comparisons to that film when it comes to Across seem to be irrelevant at this stage, though. Pre-sales and social metrics more closely resemble those of a major Marvel Cinematic Universe film and non-comic properties like Avatar: The Way of Water and Jurassic World Dominion.
While Across the Spider-Verse may still exhibit some box office behaviors resembling a front-loaded superhero film, the sheer volume of audience interest is increasingly hard to ignore. Long range forecasts previously called for an $85 million to $105 million domestic opening one month ago, while last week’s models saw that spectrum shift upward to near $100 million as the floor.
Final momentum leading into Thursday’s domestic previews (which begin at 2pm across 3,500 locations) remains bullish, though Sony is holding to their internal studio expectation of $75 million to $85 million. They report a production budget of $100 million, while early reviews are resoundingly positive at 96 percent on Rotten Tomatoes as of Wednesday morning.
In terms of early expectations for preview grosses, Across the Spider-Verse has potential to land among the best in history. The top three are 2019’s The Lion King remake ($23 million), Incredibles 2 ($18.5 million), and Toy Story 4 ($12 million).
Audience demographics should lean heavily male, which is welcome news for the female-driven The Little Mermaid. The latter hopes to avoid a sharp decline from its Memorial Day bow as the film will lose a significant share of premium screens to Spider-Man.
Counter-programming this weekend is Disney and 20th Century Studios’ The Boogeyman in a play to attract fans of horror and Stephen King.
Forecasts have unfortunately eased in recent weeks as marketing and buzz have fallen shy of expected reach despite industry hype around the film and its shift from a streaming to theatrical release. Though a much more crowded market skews comparisons, Boogeyman is pacing behind last summer’s The Black Phone and ahead of Barbarian.
Disney expects a weekend around $15 million for Boogeyman, though they note that presales are leaning more conservatively toward $12 million.
Meanwhile, though forecasts are not currently offered, Fathom Events has a chance to shine once again with the re-release of Raiders of the Lost Ark. Estimated at close to 900 locations for Sunday (and an encore showing next Wednesday, June 7), the re-issue is aiming to drum up buzz for Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny when it debuts later in June.
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 15 million
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Opening Weekend Range: $95 – 130 million
Weekend Forecast & Location Count Projections
Current projection ranges call for a 15 to 30 percent increase from last weekend’s $160.8 million top ten aggregate.
|Film||Studio||3-Day Weekend Forecast||Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, June 4||Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)||3-Day % Change from Last Wknd|
|Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse||Sony / Columbia Pictures||$115,500,000||$115,500,000||~4,200||NEW|
|The Little Mermaid (2023)||Walt Disney Pictures||$37,000,000||$179,000,000||~4,320||-61%|
|The Boogeyman||20th Century Studios||$13,100,000||$13,100,000||~3,000||NEW|
|Fast X||Universal Pictures||$10,000,000||$129,500,000||~3,300||-57%|
|Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3||Disney / Marvel Studios||$8,800,000||$320,000,000||~3,200||-58%|
|The Super Mario Bros. Movie||Universal Pictures||$3,000,000||$566,200,000||~2,200||-53%|
|About My Father||Lionsgate||$2,100,000||$8,800,000||~2,464||-51%|
|The Machine||Sony Pictures / Legendary||$1,500,000||$8,500,000||~2,409||-70%|
|Kandahar||Open Road Films||$1,000,000||$4,500,000||~2,105||-57%|
|You Hurt My Feelings||A24||$750,000||$3,000,000||~912||-46%|
All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.
Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.
The above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.