A promising October gets rolling this weekend with the latest horror franchise revival from Universal and Blumhouse.
The Exorcist: Believer
Universal Pictures
October 6, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $24M-$32M
WEEKEND PROS:
- The Exorcist: Believer hopes to attract fans of the 1973 classic in addition to today’s younger horror crowd. The genre continues to be a reliable staple at the box office, and a release date during spooky season should work to compound audience interest.
- Universal, Blumhouse, and director David Gordon Green have a reputation for previously revitalizing the Halloween franchise with their sequel trilogy, which came out in 2018, 2021, and 2022.
- Believer‘s social media prowess has continued to climb in recent weeks, while pre-sales have out-paced Saw X by 35 percent through its comparable Wednesday before release.
- Without any competition, Paramount’s PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie should remain a strong draw for families in its sophomore frame after winning the market in its debut weekend.
WEEKEND CONS:
- As noted in prior analyses, the Exorcist franchise has rarely found major box office success outside the initial film.
- The glut of recent horror releases (Saw X, A Haunting in Venice, and The Nun II), plus Believer‘s R rating, could diminish immediate demand for a sequel to a series that hasn’t been prominent in the pop culture consciousness for the last two decades. Underwhelming critics’ reviews also won’t help.
- As the shadow of Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour theatrical release looms, the female portion of Believer‘s target audience could be more focused on the former title, out October 13. Pre-sales bear this out at the moment as Believer trails last year’s Halloween Ends by 51 percent as of the Wednesday before release.
- Saw X is a historically front-loaded franchise, a factor which could be on display again—despite its positive reviews—with Believer entering the market.
Current projection ranges call for a 31% increase from the comparable weekend’s top ten aggregate of $53.8 million in 2022 and a 51% decrease from 2019’s $142.7 million frame.
| Film | Studio | 3-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, October 8 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) | 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd |
| The Exorcist: Believer | Universal Pictures & Blumhouse | $26,900,000 | $26,900,000 | ~3,600 | NEW |
| PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie | Paramount Pictures | $14,100,000 | $41,500,000 | ~3,989 | -38% |
| Saw X | Lionsgate | $8,000,000 | $32,200,000 | ~3,262 | -56% |
| The Creator | 20th Century Studios | $7,400,000 | $26,200,000 | ~3,680 | -47% |
| The Blind | Fathom Events | $3,000,000 | $10,300,000 | ~1,200 | -31% |
| The Nun II | Warner Bros. Pictures | $2,800,000 | $81,300,000 | ~2,600 | -42% |
| A Haunting in Venice | 20th Century Studios | $2,200,000 | $35,000,000 | ~2,500 | -39% |
| Dumb Money | Sony & Columbia Pictures | $2,100,000 | $10,700,000 | ~2,900 | -37% |
| Hocus Pocus: 30th Anniversary | Walt Disney Pictures | $2,000,000 | $46,300,000 | ~1,400 | NEW |
| The Equalizer 3 | Sony & Columbia Pictures | $1,900,000 | $88,900,000 | ~1,700 | -30% |
All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.
Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.
The above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.
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