Weekend Box Office Forecast: THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

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A promising October gets rolling this weekend with the latest horror franchise revival from Universal and Blumhouse.

The Exorcist: Believer

Universal Pictures

October 6, 2023 (WIDE)

Opening Weekend Range: $24M-$32M

WEEKEND PROS:

  • The Exorcist: Believer hopes to attract fans of the 1973 classic in addition to today’s younger horror crowd. The genre continues to be a reliable staple at the box office, and a release date during spooky season should work to compound audience interest.
  • Universal, Blumhouse, and director David Gordon Green have a reputation for previously revitalizing the Halloween franchise with their sequel trilogy, which came out in 2018, 2021, and 2022.
  • Believer‘s social media prowess has continued to climb in recent weeks, while pre-sales have out-paced Saw X by 35 percent through its comparable Wednesday before release.
  • Without any competition, Paramount’s PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie should remain a strong draw for families in its sophomore frame after winning the market in its debut weekend.

WEEKEND CONS:

  • As noted in prior analyses, the Exorcist franchise has rarely found major box office success outside the initial film.
  • The glut of recent horror releases (Saw X, A Haunting in Venice, and The Nun II), plus Believer‘s R rating, could diminish immediate demand for a sequel to a series that hasn’t been prominent in the pop culture consciousness for the last two decades. Underwhelming critics’ reviews also won’t help.
  • As the shadow of Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour theatrical release looms, the female portion of Believer‘s target audience could be more focused on the former title, out October 13. Pre-sales bear this out at the moment as Believer trails last year’s Halloween Ends by 51 percent as of the Wednesday before release.
  • Saw X is a historically front-loaded franchise, a factor which could be on display again—despite its positive reviews—with Believer entering the market.

Current projection ranges call for a 31% increase from the comparable weekend’s top ten aggregate of $53.8 million in 2022 and a 51% decrease from 2019’s $142.7 million frame.

Film Studio 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, October 8 Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
The Exorcist: Believer Universal Pictures & Blumhouse $26,900,000 $26,900,000 ~3,600 NEW
PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie Paramount Pictures $14,100,000 $41,500,000 ~3,989 -38%
Saw X Lionsgate $8,000,000 $32,200,000 ~3,262 -56%
The Creator 20th Century Studios $7,400,000 $26,200,000 ~3,680 -47%
The Blind Fathom Events $3,000,000 $10,300,000 ~1,200 -31%
The Nun II Warner Bros. Pictures $2,800,000 $81,300,000 ~2,600 -42%
A Haunting in Venice 20th Century Studios $2,200,000 $35,000,000 ~2,500 -39%
Dumb Money Sony & Columbia Pictures $2,100,000 $10,700,000 ~2,900 -37%
Hocus Pocus: 30th Anniversary Walt Disney Pictures $2,000,000 $46,300,000 ~1,400 NEW
The Equalizer 3 Sony & Columbia Pictures $1,900,000 $88,900,000 ~1,700 -30%

All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.

Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.

The above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.

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