A promising October gets rolling this weekend with the latest horror franchise revival from Universal and Blumhouse.
The Exorcist: Believer
October 6, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $24M-$32M
- The Exorcist: Believer hopes to attract fans of the 1973 classic in addition to today’s younger horror crowd. The genre continues to be a reliable staple at the box office, and a release date during spooky season should work to compound audience interest.
- Universal, Blumhouse, and director David Gordon Green have a reputation for previously revitalizing the Halloween franchise with their sequel trilogy, which came out in 2018, 2021, and 2022.
- Believer‘s social media prowess has continued to climb in recent weeks, while pre-sales have out-paced Saw X by 35 percent through its comparable Wednesday before release.
- Without any competition, Paramount’s PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie should remain a strong draw for families in its sophomore frame after winning the market in its debut weekend.
- As noted in prior analyses, the Exorcist franchise has rarely found major box office success outside the initial film.
- The glut of recent horror releases (Saw X, A Haunting in Venice, and The Nun II), plus Believer‘s R rating, could diminish immediate demand for a sequel to a series that hasn’t been prominent in the pop culture consciousness for the last two decades. Underwhelming critics’ reviews also won’t help.
- As the shadow of Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour theatrical release looms, the female portion of Believer‘s target audience could be more focused on the former title, out October 13. Pre-sales bear this out at the moment as Believer trails last year’s Halloween Ends by 51 percent as of the Wednesday before release.
- Saw X is a historically front-loaded franchise, a factor which could be on display again—despite its positive reviews—with Believer entering the market.
Current projection ranges call for a 31% increase from the comparable weekend’s top ten aggregate of $53.8 million in 2022 and a 51% decrease from 2019’s $142.7 million frame.
|Film||Studio||3-Day Weekend Forecast||Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, October 8||Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)||3-Day % Change from Last Wknd|
|The Exorcist: Believer||Universal Pictures & Blumhouse||$26,900,000||$26,900,000||~3,600||NEW|
|PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie||Paramount Pictures||$14,100,000||$41,500,000||~3,989||-38%|
|The Creator||20th Century Studios||$7,400,000||$26,200,000||~3,680||-47%|
|The Blind||Fathom Events||$3,000,000||$10,300,000||~1,200||-31%|
|The Nun II||Warner Bros. Pictures||$2,800,000||$81,300,000||~2,600||-42%|
|A Haunting in Venice||20th Century Studios||$2,200,000||$35,000,000||~2,500||-39%|
|Dumb Money||Sony & Columbia Pictures||$2,100,000||$10,700,000||~2,900||-37%|
|Hocus Pocus: 30th Anniversary||Walt Disney Pictures||$2,000,000||$46,300,000||~1,400||NEW|
|The Equalizer 3||Sony & Columbia Pictures||$1,900,000||$88,900,000||~1,700||-30%|
All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.
Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.
The above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.