Weekend Box Office Forecast: THE NUN II and MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 3 Set to Continue September’s Slate of Sequels

As the first month of fall movie season goes full speed ahead, two more franchise sequels hit cinemas on the coming post-Labor Day weekend.

The Nun II

Warner Bros. Pictures

September 8, 2023 (WIDE)

Opening Weekend Range: $30M-$42M

PROS:

  • The Nun II should rekindle some of the horror magic that’s propelled the Conjuring franchise over the past decade with generally consistent fan turnout, including the original Nun‘s $53.8 million domestic opening four Septembers ago.
  • Social models and pre-sale trends for the Nun sequel indicate some backloading to Friday shows rather than a dominant fan rush on Thursday. A premium screen footprint for The Nun II will also be an advantage.
  • As a counter-programmer, My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 is driving pre-sale trends slightly ahead of Book Club 2: The Next Chapter at this stage.
  • Coming off the second best-ever Labor Day opening, The Equalizer 3 should remain notable in weekend #2 among action fans and the film’s core adult male audience.

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3

Focus Features

September 8, 2023 (WIDE)

Opening Weekend Range: $7M-$12M

CONS:

  • Diminished returns are expected for The Nun II given its predecessor’s generally lukewarm reception (35 percent approval from audiences and 24 percent from critics on Rotten Tomatoes). That film’s box office was also notably frontloaded, posting just a 2.18 multiplier off its debut to finish with $117.5 million domestically.
  • Pre-sales for the The Nun II are trending slightly lower than expected, though horror films have a knack for popping late and drawing strong walk-up business.
  • As it’s been seven years since My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2, and marketing for this follow-up has been modest, Greek Wedding 3 is also likely to endure some audience runoff. Its core audience—moviegoers over the age of 40—has gravitated further away from cinemas since the original film gained sleeper blockbuster status with its unexpected $241.4 million domestic run in 2002.
  • With The Nun II taking over many PLF showtimes this weekend, Equalizer 3 will see a decline in average ticket prices that will limit its sophomore frame hold.

Current projection ranges call for an 121% increase from the comparable weekend’s top ten aggregate of $33.95 million in 2022 and a 39% decrease from 2019’s $123.5 million post-Labor Day frame.

Film Studio 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, September 10 Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
The Nun II Warner Bros. Pictures $31,400,000 $31,400,000 ~3,600 NEW
The Equalizer 3 Sony & Columbia Pictures $12,800,000 $63,100,000 ~3,965 -63%
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 Focus Features $8,000,000 $8,000,000 3,645 NEW
Barbie Warner Bros. Pictures $6,100,000 $620,600,000 ~3,300 -40%
Blue Beetle Warner Bros. Pictures $4,100,000 $63,900,000 ~2,800 -42%
Oppenheimer Universal Pictures $3,400,000 $315,400,000 ~2,200 -41%
Gran Turismo Sony Pictures $3,300,000 $35,700,000 ~2,600 -50%
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem Paramount Pictures $3,000,000 $111,800,000 ~2,700 -35%
Meg 2: The Trench Warner Bros. Pictures $1,600,000 $81,200,000 ~1,600 -43%
Bottoms Orion Pictures $1,300,000 $6,400,000 ~1,200 -57%
Jawan Yash Raj Films USA, Inc. n/a n/a ~800 NEW

All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.

Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.

The above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.

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