After a strong debut from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, can Transformers: Rise of the Beasts keep summer 2023’s momentum going?
This weekend’s outlook is below, followed by final forecasts.
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
Read our interview with Transformers: Rise of the Beasts director Steven Caple Jr.
Paramount Pictures
June 9, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $46M-$56M
Domestic Total Range: $93M-$133M
PROS:
- Rise of the Beasts should appeal primarily to preexisting fans of the Transformers franchise—particularly particularly male moviegoers, who played a major role in earning over $1.57 billion domestically for the series so far.
- Beasts‘ social metrics indicate the strongest interest drivers come from this film’s adaptation of one of the brand’s most popular storylines, with the film’s 1990s setting also contributing to a nostalgia factor that could mean a boost in audience turnout.
- The latest Transformers entry will enjoy a wide scope of premium screen play this weekend, including IMAX and other formats.
- Paramount expects an opening weekend in the mid-$50 million range. Previews begin with 7pm Early Access shows on Wednesday, followed by a 3pm start on Thursday.
CONS:
- As of early this week, Rise of the Beasts‘ pre-sales are leaning heavily toward Wednesday’s Early Access and Thursday’s traditional preview shows.
- In sampled pre-sale activity, as of Tuesday Beasts was trailing Black Adam by 5%—a drop from the end of last week, when Beasts had an initial lead over Adam of 9%.
- Meanwhile, Beasts‘ early Rotten Tomatoes score from critics sits at 57% from a sample size of 53 reviews. Typically, scores in this range decrease over time as the pool of review submissions climbs.
- Considering the target audience crossover between Beasts and Spider-Verse, the latter’s strong word of mouth could have an impact on Beasts‘ ticket sales—though, on a positive note for Paramount, this weekend sees Spider-Verse lose some of its premium screen footprint to Beasts.
Holdover Titles
SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE
- Fresh off its $120.7 million debut, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse hopes to benefit from a wave of incredible word of mouth during its second weekend. Across currently boasts 96% approval from both audiences and critics on Rotten Tomatoes.
- Across the Spider-Verse‘s predecessor, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, also benefited from extremely positive buzz and dropped -53.4% between its first and second weekend when it was released in December 2018.
THE LITTLE MERMAID
- With no direct competition for its primarily female audience, The Little Mermaid should enjoy another healthy hold in its third frame.
- Third-frame drops for the three most recent Disney remakes released primarily on the big screen are -42.4% (Aladdin), -49.7% (The Lion King), and -49.8% (Beauty and the Beast).
Current projection ranges call for a 24% to 31% drop from last weekend’s $203.35 million top ten aggregate.
| Film | Studio | 3-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, June 11 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) | 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd |
| Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | Sony / Columbia Pictures | $50,500,000 | $218,800,000 | ~4,313 | -58% |
| Transformers: Rise of the Beasts | Paramount Pictures | $49,500,000 | $49,500,000 | 3,673 | NEW |
| The Little Mermaid (2023) | Walt Disney Pictures | $25,000,000 | $233,800,000 | ~3,900 | -40% |
| Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 | Disney / Marvel Studios | $6,700,000 | $335,000,000 | ~3,000 | -37% |
| The Boogeyman | 20th Century Studios | $5,700,000 | $23,400,000 | ~3,205 | -54% |
| Fast X | Universal Pictures | $5,500,000 | $138,600,000 | ~2,700 | -43% |
| The Super Mario Bros. Movie | Universal Pictures | $2,000,000 | $569,900,000 | ~1,700 | -41% |
| About My Father | Lionsgate | $1,100,000 | $10,900,000 | ~1,100 | -46% |
| The Machine | Sony Pictures / Legendary | $500,000 | $10,100,000 | ~1,000 | -71% |
| You Hurt My Feelings | A24 | $370,000 | $3,900,000 | ~400 | -51% |
| Mending the Line | Blue Fox Entertainment | n/a | n/a | ~500 | NEW |
All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.
Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.
The above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.
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