Weekend Estimates: Hobbs & Shaw Bows to Healthy $60M+ Domestically, Lion King ($38M) & Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood ($20M) Cap Top Three

Saturday Update: Universal reports that Hobbs & Shaw scored a solid $23.72 million opening day in North America on Friday, inclusive of Thursday night’s previously reported $5.8 million earnings.

Comp-wise, Hobbs registered slightly ahead of the first day grosses by films like John Wick 3 ($22.6 million), Mission: Impossible – Fallout ($22.8 million), Star Trek Beyond ($22.3 million), and Jason Bourne ($22.6 million). In fact, the film’s 4.09x multiplier from Thursday night’s earnings bests all of those titles with the exception of Bourne, further boosting indications that this film may not be as front-loaded as once expected based on the franchise’s own history.

Early word of mouth appears very encouraging among audiences as the film boasts a 90 percent Audience Score from 2,608 verified ratings on Rotten Tomatoes, far higher than the 67 percent critics’ score, indicating this will indeed prove to be a late summer crowd-pleaser.

Based on current models, Boxoffice projects Hobbs & Shaw will earn north of $60 million for the weekend (which remains Universal’s projection this morning).

The Lion King added $11.1 million to begin its third weekend, down 50.5 percent from last Friday as the Disney remake continues to prove more front-loaded than once expected. Still, with a $403.75 million domestic haul through 15 days — and having surpassed $1 billion globally earlier this week — it remains one of the biggest blockbusters of the year. Boxoffice projects a third frame around $38 million domestically.

Rounding out the top three, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood eased 66 percent from opening day last week to $5.65 million on Friday. With $64.5 million earned in eight days, the latest Tarantino hit is pacing 8 percent of his Inglorious Basterds, which had earned $59.6 million through eight days of play ten years ago this month. Boxoffice projects a second weekend north of $20 million, while Sony is slightly more conservative at $19.325 million.

Meanwhile, The Farewell expanded to 409 locations with a $706,566 estimate yesterday as it paces for a weekend north of $2 million for A24.

Early weekend estimates are listed below. Studio estimates to follow on Sunday.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, AUG. 2 – SUN, AUG. 4

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw $64,000,000 4,253 $15,048 $64,000,000 1 Universal Pictures
2 The Lion King $38,300,000 -50% 4,802 77 $7,976 $430,943,078 3 Walt Disney Pictures
3 Once Upon a Time In Hollywood $20,200,000 -51% 3,659 0 $5,521 $79,017,475 2 Sony Pictures
4 Spider-Man: Far from Home $7,700,000 -38% 3,446 -405 $2,234 $360,273,925 5 Sony / Columbia
5 Toy Story 4 $7,300,000 -30% 3,225 -385 $2,264 $410,200,743 7 Disney
6 Yesterday $2,400,000 -22% 1,837 -713 $1,306 $67,862,655 6 Universal Pictures
7 Crawl $2,200,000 -46% 2,085 -635 $1,055 $36,140,773 4 Paramount Pictures
8 Aladdin $2,000,000 -34% 1,370 -428 $1,460 $350,351,592 11 Disney
9 Stuber $560,000 -68% 1,080 -1070 $519 $21,806,533 4 20th Century Fox

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The Farewell $2,300,000 51% 409 274 $5,623 $6,713,207 4 A24
2 Annabelle Comes Home $880,000 -43% 919 -368 $958 $71,580,112 6 Warner Bros.
3 The Secret Life of Pets 2 $820,000 -11% 779 -222 $1,053 $155,499,025 9 Universal
4 Midsommar $410,000 -44% 381 -245 $1,076 $25,214,341 5 A24
5 Avengers: Endgame $305,000 -68% 420 -160 $726 $857,401,335 15 Disney
6 Rocketman $290,000 -38% 354 -164 $819 $95,551,549 10 Paramount Pictures
7 Dark Phoenix $110,000 -9% 125 -20 $880 $65,765,489 9 Fox

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The Fighting Preacher $55,465 -8% 37 9 $1,499 $265,286 2 Purdie Distribution
2 Dumbo $11,000 -20% 30 -15 $367 $114,761,181 19 Walt Disney Pictures
3 Bethany Hamilton: Unstoppable $7,700 -74% 24 -39 $321 $570,683 4 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures

Friday Report: Universal confirms this morning that Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw collected $5.8 million from preview shows on Thursday night. Showings began at 7pm in approximately 3,400 theaters domestically.

In the usual comp landscape, that figure is basically in line with John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum‘s $5.9 million start back in May and Mission: Impossible – Fallout‘s $6.0 million one year ago. It also comes in ahead of Star Trek Beyond‘s $5.5 million and Jason Bourne‘s $4.3 million in summer 2016.

For the sake of mentioning, The Fate of the Furious took in $10.4 million from Thursday night previews in April 2017.

Entering the weekend, the studio had been expecting a debut weekend close to $60 million. It remains to be seen how weekend playability holds up in the effort of reaching that mark — with strong walk-up business generally expected. Still, most models now indicate the film is likely to end up on the lower end of expectations stateside.

More updates as they come.