Weekend Forecast: A Madea Family Funeral Takes On Dragon 3‘s Sophomore Frame

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The first weekend of March has long appeared to be the final calm before next week’s Marvel storm approaches, but the two headlining films this weekend should generate positive results nonetheless.

Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral
Opening Weekend Range: $18 – 27 million

PROS:

  • Tyler Perry’s brand has proven remarkably consistent, and the Madea franchise is the shining tower of his box office achievements thus far.
  • The promise of this film representing the end of the Madea series is expected to bring out Perry’s loyal fans, especially given the lack of direct competition in the market right now.
  • With the exception of 2013’s A Madea Christmas ($16 million), no film in the series has opened below $21.2 million (2017’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween). The average opening weekend across all previous eight movies dating back to 2005’s Diary of a Mad Black Woman is $26.2 million.
  • Trailer Impact surveys have a generated 70 percent overall interest score from audiences as of this week, comparable to Night School‘s 72 percent and ahead of What Men Want‘s 67 percent at the same point before release.

CONS:

  • Even when considering the overall success of the franchise, the Madea brand peaked at the box office in the late ’00s with 2009’s Madea Goes to Jail ($41.0 million) representing the highest opening of the eight-film series.

Other Weekend Notes

  • Focus Features will release Greta in an estimated 2,000 theaters this weekend. Traditional industry tracking suggests the thriller will open to around $6 million, although we suspect lukewarm reviews and likely expansions from Oscar winners will hold it back from the range.
  • Following its Best Picture Oscar win on Sunday night, look for Green Book to see a noticeable increase in business this weekend. An updated theater count was not available at the time of publishing.

Top 10 vs. Last Year

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will earn approximately $90 million. That would mark a 33 percent drop from $134.3 million earned by the top ten on the same weekend last year when Black Panther‘s third frame ($66.3 million) topped the chart ahead of openers Red Sparrow ($16.9 million) and Death Wish ($13.0 million).


Weekend Forecast

FilmDistributor3-Day Weekend ForecastProjected Domestic Total through Sunday, March 3% Change from Last Wknd
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden WorldUniversal$32,500,000 $100,900,000 -41%
Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family FuneralLionsgate$22,800,000 $22,800,000 NEW
Alita: Battle AngelFox$7,300,000 $72,600,000 -41%
The LEGO Movie 2: The Second PartWarner Bros.$6,300,000 $91,400,000 -35%
Fighting With My FamilyMGM$4,400,000 $14,600,000 -44%
Isn’t It RomanticWarner Bros. / New Line$4,300,000 $39,800,000 -40%
Green BookUniversal$3,900,000 $75,200,000 83%
GretaFocus Features$3,500,000 $3,500,000 NEW
Happy Death Day 2UUniversal$2,600,000 $25,400,000 -47%
What Men WantParamount$2,400,000 $49,300,000 -54%

Alex Edghill contributed to this report

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.

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