New Year’s Weekend Forecast: ‘Aquaman’ & ‘Mary Poppins Returns’ Look to Repeat as Top Two; ‘Holmes and Watson’ & ‘Vice’ Open

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The final weekend of 2018 will see a number of strong holdovers as the Christmas-New Year’s corridor carries on, offering something for a variety of audiences. Holmes & Watson and Vice debuted in wide release on Christmas Day this past Tuesday and are included in the forecast below.

Note: Theater counts for Mary Queen of Scots and The Favourite were not available at this time of publishing. Expansions wide enough could help one or both titles make the top ten over the coming holiday weekend.

Top 10 vs. Last Year

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will earn approximately $160 million. That would represent a 8 percent decline from the same weekend last year when Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle ruled the box office on New Year’s Eve weekend as part of an overall $173.3 million top ten frame.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, December 30 % Change from Last Wknd
Aquaman Warner Bros. $48,700,000 $185,700,000 -28%
Mary Poppins Returns Disney $26,200,000 $92,700,000 +11%
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse Sony / Columbia $19,000,000 $104,500,000 +14%
Bumblebee Paramount $17,900,000 $63,700,000 -17%
Holmes and Watson Sony / Columbia $11,000,000 $24,000,000 NEW
The Mule Warner Bros. $10,600,000 $59,400,000 +12%
Vice Annapurna $9,000,000 $19,400,000 NEW
Second Act STX $8,100,000 $22,900,000 +25%
Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch Universal $5,100,000 $266,300,000 -40%
Ralph Breaks the Internet Disney $4,000,000 $171,600,000 -15%

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.

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