Weekend Forecast: How High Will ‘Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!’ & ‘Equalizer 2’ Debut?

A trio of sequels will open this weekend as theaters are looking to get a jolt of adult-driven business from two of them. Here’s how the frame is shaping up:

The Equalizer 2
Opening Weekend Range: $24 – 33 million

Goodwill from the first film and Denzel Washington’s considerable appeal are expected to drive a largely adult male audience for this one. While competition from Skyscraper and next weekend’s Mission: Impossible – Fallout have been concerns in recent weeks, the former’s under-performance might bode well for the debut of this sequel — despite early reactions from critics.

Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!
Opening Weekend Range: $29 – 44 million

We remain bullish on this sequel’s prospects as social media buzz continues to crush expectations, trending on par with the recent Fifty Shades sequels and well ahead of this summer’s only other female-driven tentpole offering (Ocean’s 8). Strong reviews from critics are just one more reason to expect an excellent debut here, not to mention the revival of musicals in recent years as the likes of Greatest Showman, the Pitch Perfect series, and La La Land have done excellent business at the box office.

Unfriended: Dark Web
Opening Weekend Range: $3.5 – 6.5 million

Modest social media performance and traditional tracking metrics have lowered our outlook here, but the film’s target audience hasn’t had much else to get excited about this summer as the horror genre has been under-represented in recent months. That could be a slight advantage going into Friday.

Top 10

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will earn approximately $148 million or more. That would represent a decline of 14 percent from the same frame last year, which generated $172.9 million as Dunkirk ($50.5 million), Girls Trip ($31.2 million), and Valerian ($17 million) debuted.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, July 22 % Change from Last Wknd
Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! Universal $38,000,000 $38,000,000 NEW
The Equalizer 2 Sony / Columbia $28,500,000 $28,500,000 NEW
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation Sony / Columbia $23,500,000 $90,600,000 -47%
Ant-Man and the Wasp Disney / Marvel $15,300,000 $163,200,000 -47%
Skyscraper Universal $11,900,000 $47,400,000 -52%
Incredibles 2 Disney / Pixar $10,900,000 $556,900,000 -33%

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