Weekend Forecast: ‘Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation’ & ‘Skyscraper’ Take Aim at Top 2 Spots

Three films could potentially top $30 million this weekend, with two of them marking their debuts. Our analysis:

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation
Opening Weekend Range: $40 – 55 million

Signs are largely encouraging for the animated sequel behind healthy pre-sales reports and tracking metrics lining up with the likes of Ice Age: Continental Drift and How to Train Your Dragon 2. Social media growth hasn’t been as strong as the previous Transylvania films, but this still represents only the second major animated title of summer to open. With plenty of breathing room after Incredibles 2, parents with young kids should be a driving force here.

The studio’s official projection is around $35 million.

Opening Weekend Range: $27 – 40 million

Dwayne Johnson’s star power is the main attraction here as he comes off the strong global runs of Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and Rampage. Social media buzz isn’t quite as strong as it was for San Andreas and Central Intelligence, but the film’s nature as an original film is likely to result in solid walk-up business as opposed to strong pre-sales. General tracking has the film scattered with potential, although notably with less interest among young women than some of Johnson’s recent hits. Breakout potential still exists, but this is more likely to be a leggy performer with stronger overseas appeal.

The studio’s official projection is around $30 million.

Top 10 Comparisons

Boxoffice forecasts this weekend’s top ten will accumulate around $160 million. That would represent a 3 percent increase from the same weekend last year when War for the Planet of the Apes debuted to $56.3 million as part of an overall $156.1 million top ten market.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, July 15 % Change from Last Wknd
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation Sony / Columbia $45,000,000 $45,000,000 NEW
Skyscraper Universal $33,000,000 $33,000,000 NEW
Ant-Man and the Wasp Disney / Marvel $31,000,000 $136,500,000 -59%
Incredibles 2 Disney / Pixar $15,400,000 $535,200,000 -46%
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Universal $13,900,000 $361,300,000 -51%
The First Purge Universal $8,200,000 $48,800,000 -53%