Contrary to conservative forecasts back in mid-summer, this week’s top line opener (Hustlers) is bringing some notable breakout potential into its debut frame.
In fact, it may potentially be enough to overtake the reigning champion, It: Chapter Two, if the horror sequel performs along a trajectory closer to last year’s The Nun (-66 percent) rather than its own predecessor (-51 percent) in September 2017.
Meanwhile, this weekend’s other new wide release unfortunately has a more muted outlook.
Opening Weekend Range: $28 – 38 million
- A star-studded cast featuring Jennifer Lopez, Constance Wu, and Cardi B among others is driving major interest among female moviegoers over the age of 18 — with stand-out intent-to-see from other demographics as well. Appeal to prospective moviegoers of diverse backgrounds is a major component in our optimistic expectations.
- Critics’ reviews have further bolstered rising forecasts as the pic stands at an excellent 90 percent fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of this report’s publishing. With industry pundits speculating the film could earn Lopez her first Oscar nomination, buzz may continue to escalate even more in the coming days.
- A shortage of films catering to female audiences in recent months is another advantage here as that under-served audience looks for a movie fitting of group outings to theaters, a phenomenon that previously aided pics like Ocean’s 8, Girls Trip, and Bad Moms — all three of which Hustlers is exceeding in pre-release tracking and social media models.
- Very few elements are working against the film at this stage, but if there’s one, it could be the recent mixed box office history of revenge-driven pics like Widows and Miss Bala.
Opening Weekend Range: $4 – 9 million
- The source novel’s award-winning and best-seller acclaim and built-in fan interest are key factors in play if this drama hopes to meet or exceed expectations this weekend.
- With reviews sitting at 28 percent rotten currently, we’re concerned that the potential for last-minute walk-ups from adults will be diminished given already soft pre-release tracking trends.
Top 10 vs. Last Year
Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will hold relatively steady in comparison to the same frame last year with between a 2 percent decline and 3 percent increase. That weekend saw The Predator, A Simple Favor, White Boy Rick, and Unbroken: Path to Redemption debut as part of a $94 million top ten aggregate twelve months ago.
|Film||Distributor||3-Day Weekend Forecast||Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, September 15||% Change from Last Wknd|
|It: Chapter Two||Warner Bros. / New Line||$36,000,000||$149,000,000||-60%|
|The Goldfinch||Warner Bros.||$7,000,000||$7,000,000||NEW|
|Angel Has Fallen||Lionsgate||$3,500,000||$59,100,000||-42%|
Alex Edghill contributed to this report
Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.