The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | January 9 – 11, 2026
Week 2 | January 9 – 11, 2026
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
20th Century Studios | Week 4
Weekend Range: $25M – $30M
Pros
- Having just joined the billion dollar club, Avatar: Fire and Ash has already crossed the $300M benchmark in the US ($311.3M and counting). It posted a solid -34% hold in Frame 3 for a $41.4M weekend, which is almost a million-and-a-half over Sunday estimates. Our prediction panel has forecast an even smaller percentage drop this frame, despite two new wide releases.
Cons
- We still think the third Avatar can leg out to a 4.5x multiple as a ceiling, potentially reaching the $425M mark domestically before the end of its run. There’s been a notable drop-off from The Way of Water after 17-days in release, but like the Fast and Furious and Jurassic World franchises, Avatar is still highly valuable in the international marketplace.
2. Greenland 2: Migration
Lionsgate | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $9M – $12M
Pros
- Lionsgate’s Greenland 2: Migration is the sequel to the 2020 COVID casualty about Gerard Butler surviving an apocalyptic event, which skipped domestic theaters but still managed to make $40M overseas. The hope here is that this movie can distinguish itself during a dry period at the box office, as did the Butler-starrer Den of Thieves: Pantera during its $15M #1 opening in this exact frame last year.
Cons
- With 14% showtime market share for the weekend, Greenland 2 has the potential to surprise up to a #2 finish, but it’s far from a guarantee. We can see the film dropping down as far as #6 in a very competitive frame with only marginal differences between the #2 and #6 films in release. The original film was released during the covid era, so franchise awareness might not be as high as one would hope for. We expect a performance in line with Moonfall ($9M opening weekend), with room to improve.
3. Zootopia 2
Walt Disney Pictures | Week 7
Weekend Range: $9M – $12M
Pros
- Zootopia 2‘s staying power has been strong, and the film has now passed Frozen 2 as the highest-grossing Disney Animation release of all-time. The animated film maintained #2 status at $19.37M this weekend, only -2% from the previous. It could potentially fall off this frame, but lack of real competition from other children’s titles has this over-performing deep into its run.
Cons
- The Zootopia sequel sits at #4 in terms of showtime market share, confirming its ongoing appeal with audiences. On the con side, we are not sure how many repeat viewings of this movie are left for tapped-out families now resetting back into school mode. Even the wildly popular Moana 2 suffered a -47% drop in its 7th Frame.
Wild Cards
4. Primate
Paramount Pictures | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $7M – $10M
- This week, we find three titles that could jump into either the second or third position on the charts. First up is Paramount’s killer monkey movie Primate, which is sitting at an excellent 91% on RT critical and could very well over-perform if it can activate the horror crowd the way the studio’s original chiller Smile did in 2022 ($22.6M debut/$105.9M domestic). It currently leads the showtime market share with 15% of showtimes in the US.
5. The Housemaid
Lionsgate | Week 4
Weekend Range: $7M – $10M
- Paul Feig’s erotic thriller The Housemaid has been posting fantastic holds, including last weekend’s -1% tally. On top of that, this week’s announcement of a sequel going into production gave the movie a lot of great momentum heading into this weekend. At $77.55M domestic and $134.85M WW, The Housemaid is now Lionsgate’s highest grossing film since 2023’s The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbidrds and Snakes.
6. Marty Supreme
A24 | Week 4
Weekend Range: $7M – $10M
- Marty Supreme is already a winner, currently A24’s third-highest-grossing film of all time with $56M. We expect it to move to second, passing Civil War‘s $68m, by the end of its theatrical run, but it will need several more strong weekends if it wants to dethrone Everything Everywhere All at Once‘s $77M.
Share this post