The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | December 26 – 28, 2025
Week 52 | December 26 – 28, 2025
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
20th Century Studios | Week 2
Weekend Range: $40M – $50M
Pros
- The final frame of 2025 is sandwiched right in-between Christmas and New Years, and as with last year’s Nosferatu we have one new mid-tier opener in Anaconda duking it out with Disney’s monster holdover Avatar: Fire and Ash. Scoring $89.16M (about a million over Sunday estimates) in its debut frame, James Cameron’s monster budget threequel will be destination moviegoing at PLFs, with a majority of earnings coming from 3D screens. Meanwhile, the global total is about to cross $400M with $398.7M reported to-date.
Cons
- The last entry, Avatar: The Way of Water, had a -52% drop in its sophomore frame, and we’re expecting a similar slide for this title. If it slips under $40M in Frame 2 we may have to start talking about the sequel as a disappointment, but the jury is still out on how this holds. On Monday it tallied a respectable $13.3M, helping it cross the $100M landmark domestically at $102.48M. Even though it is underperforming compared to the last film, Fire and Ash helped AMC enjoy its best pre-Christmas holiday weekend since 2021, along with Regal’s biggest market share weekend of 2025.
2. Anaconda
Sony Pictures | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $20M – $30M
Pros
- Sony’s big holiday entry Anaconda finds Jack Black and Paul Rudd as buddies trying to mount a bootleg remake of 1997’s original giant snake camp-fest Anaconda, with original star Ice Cube providing a well-publicized cameo. With little major new competition, we look at this as a solid counter-programmer for families and teens looking for something less sci-fi than Avatar and less kiddie than the other animated films in play (David, Spongebob, Zootopia). The 1997 original, featuring pre-superstardom Jennifer Lopez and Owen Wilson, was an April sleeper opening to $16.6M before a $65.59M domestic lifetime. It was followed by the 2004 sequel Anacondas: The Hunt for the Blood Orchid, which died on the vine with $31.5M.
Cons
- Sony was clearly looking to combine the jungle adventure of their Jumanji franchise with the meta comedy of a 21 Jump Street movie. Despite a similar December release date, we cannot see Anaconda performing anywhere near the level of Jumanji, whose last two entries opened to $36.16M and $59.25M, respectively. Jack Black had a monster hit this year with A Minecraft Movie, though it could be argued the brand was the biggest star in that case. Paul Rudd, on the other hand, had two minor indie releases in the flop Death of a Unicorn ($12.5M) and the low budget sleeper Friendship ($16.2M). His two previous tentpoles in the Ghostbusters and Ant-Man franchises both disappointed. Reviews for the new Anaconda have not been kind at a current 42% on Rotten Tomatoes.
3. David
Angel Studios | Week 2
Opening Weekend Range: $15M – $20M
Pros
- Angel Studios’ animated religious film David was last week’s surprise #2 at $22M, and should see a very solid hold from faith-based audiences. We saw this earlier this year when The King of Kings only dropped -9% in Frame 2. We expect that momentum to be enough to fend off a strong challenge from A24’s Marty Supreme, though the power of Chalamet is not to be underestimated.
Cons
- While the Christmas festivities are expected to boost David in a big way, we can expect a massive drop-off from Frame 3 and beyond since it is mainly the faith-based crowd that is driving business. See the -76% cliff the studio’s King of Kings fell off of in its third weekend after the Easter crowds went away. It is also likely that more GA-oriented holdovers Spongebob and Zootopia will be pulling focus from this one.
WILD CARD:
Marty Supreme
A24 | Week 2
Opening Weekend Range: $12M – $18M
- Great word of mouth, strong reviews, and the BO cache of Timothée Chalamet are boosting up A24’s table tennis biopic Marty Supreme, which expands this weekend following a Top 10-breaking platform bow last weekend with the best PSA of the year ($145,833). At 2.5 hours running time and an R-rating, we are not sure this is the sort of movie that can sneak into the Top 3, considering the more mainstream offerings this weekend, but it has a shot at surging up to #3 or even stealing #2 (ala David last week), depending on a strong over-performance and a low debut from Anaconda.
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