The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | May 15 – 17, 2026
Week 20 | May 15 – 17, 2026
1. The Devil Wears Prada 2
20th Century Studios | Week 3
Weekend Range: $18M – $23M
Showtime Market Share: 13%
Pros
- 20th Century’s The Devil Wears Prada 2 managed to “layeth the smacketh down” against Mortal Kombat II, earning $41.6M (down from $43M estimates) while dropping only 46% from its stellar debut. The film now has the momentum to remain atop the box office a third consecutive week, especially with no direct competition from this weekend’s trio of counterprogramming new releases: In the Grey, Obsession, and Is God Is.
Cons
- The drop for Prada 2 in Frame 3 will be steeper without the Mother’s Day bump, which at $16.28M was a rare case of a Sunday performing best amid the 3-Day. It will therefore be locked into a close competition with Michael for the top spot, a battle that either title could win. Regardless the result, at $146.8M domestic, the sequel should pass Meryl Streep-voiced Hoppers‘ $165.7M before the weekend.
2. Michael
Lionsgate | Week 4
Weekend Range: $18M – $23M
Showtime Market Share: 13%
Pros
- Lionsgate’s musical biopic winner Michael took $37.9M (up $1.4M from Sunday estimates) to place #3 this past frame, and a similar hold will help the musical biopic reclaim the top spot at the domestic box office. It will hold the same showtime market share than Prada 2, suggesting exhibitors are confident this title has real potential to lead the market in its fourth frame.
Cons
- There’s no downside to a Michael Jackson movie that has already made $250.19M domestic and $589.3M globally. We expect the film to cross the $600M global benchmark before Friday.
3. Mortal Kombat II
Warner Bros. | Week 2
Weekend Range: $15M – $20M
Showtime Market Share: 12%
Pros
- Warner Bros. delivered a bloody, fun, action-packed Mortal Kombat II that appeared to hit all the right buttons for video gamers but ultimately fell short up against the box office muscle of Meryl Streep and Anne Hathaway. Mother’s Day seems like a counterintuitive opening weekend for Mortal Kombat II, but since 46% of its $38.5M debut (down $1.5M from estimates) came from PLFs, the film needed the extra frame to keep those premium screens before they were claimed by The Mandalorian and Grogu come Memorial Day. It will get an extra week to dominate those screens as no other title in the marketplace is as fan-driven to premium formats this weekend as the video game adaptation.
Cons
- We anticipate a bigger drop from this fan-driven title than from the other two, resulting in a third place finish. The “B” CinemaScore for what is intended as a crowd-pleasing fisticuffs punch-’em-up is low enough to indicate a steep sophomore drop for Mortal Kombat II. A strong hold against an off-weekend from both Prada 2 and Michael could place second or even first this coming frame, but right now it looks like it’s bringing up the rear of the Top 3.
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