The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | January 10 – 12, 2025
Week 2 | January 10 – 12, 2025
1. Mufasa: The Lion King
Walt Disney Pictures | Week 4
Weekend Range: $12M – $15M
Pros
Last weekend Mufasa: The Lion King made the rare third frame jump to #1 after legging it out against Sonic 3 the two previous weekends. The current global total is $477.8M, meaning a leap across the $500M milestone is imminent. Right now this family flick seems like it’s enjoying the best momentum coming into a slow January frame, so we’re betting that the Barry Jenkins film will keep its lucky streak going. It has also lifted the movie’s co-star voice artist Seth Rogen’s career box office past the $4B mark.
Cons
At its current total of $170.2M it might be a slow crawl to $200M domestic, though it will make it there. If it eventually makes it a little past the $600M landmark that should be enough to eek out a small profit for Disney before ancillaries. It’s not a big winner like Moana 2 (currently at $960.7M globally, on the brink of a billion) but it’s not an embarrassment either.
2. Den of Thieves 2: Pantera
Lionsgate | NEW
Weekend Range: $12M – $15M
Pros
Modest hit Den of Thieves is getting a sequel, Den of Thieves 2: Pantera, with original stars Gerard Butler, O’Shea Jackson Jr., and Meadow Williams returning. So far early reactions peg the film as fun “junk food,” but since the first entry only scored 41% on RT don’t expect an avalanche of praise for what is essentially a B-level programmer. Because our forecast team is predicting a tight race between the Top 3, Den of Thieves 2 has an outside shot of finishing first. but could just as easily come in third like the first movie did in January 2018 when it debuted to $15.2M. The first one ultimately grossed $44.9M domestic and $80.1M WW, making it one of Butler’s more successful entries in recent years.
Cons
Olympus Has Fallen star Gerard Butler is due for a hit following a cold streak at the box office dating back several years. Butler helped drive 2006’s sword-and-sandal flick 300 to $210M domestically, and has settled into a series of genre films since. The downward shift in drawing power arguably began in 2020 with the mid-budget disaster movie Greenland, which scored big on PVOD after it circumvented theaters due to the pandemic. Since then his action entries like CopShop ($5.2M) and Kandahar ($4.8M) have performed poorly while Last Seen Alive went straight to Netflix. The 2023 film Plane did middling domestic theatrical ($32.1M).
3. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Paramount Pictures | Week 4
Weekend Range: $10M – $13M
Pros
While Sonic the Hedgehog 3 could not hold the top spot a third time, it was a close race with Mufasa and might be again this frame where it’s really anyone’s game. At $189.4M domestic this Hedgehog looks poised to cross the $200M finish line by or before Sunday. This entry also helped star Jim Carrey cross the $3B career mark domestically ($3.22B) and the $6B mark globally ($6.075B), meaning the comic’s rubberface antics are still being welcomed with open arms by audiences.
Cons
Paramount should be more than happy with Sonic 3‘s results, especially given the modest reported $122M budget, and a fourth entry is already in development. The threequel’s $337.7M global total is perfectly fine, and it will likely pass the second Sonic‘s $405.1M soon, but we’re not seeing a ton of growth for this franchise as a theatrical property moving forward.
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