The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | February 20 – 22, 2026
Week 8 | February 20 – 22, 2026
1. Goat
Sony Pictures | Week 2
Weekend Range: $17M – $22M
Pros
- Sony’s animated Goat actually came in slightly ahead of Sunday estimates, with $27.2M for the 3-Day, alongside the best CinemaScore (“A”) and audience score (93%) of the Top 3. If this plays at all like last year’s Q1 family hit Dog Man ($97.97M domestic total) then it could be well on its way towards legging it out past $100M before Hoppers hops in on its territory on March 6.
- Our Showtimes Dashboard shows this movie gaining market share across the United States, with a market-leading 14% of all showtimes in the country. The bump from Monday Actuals suggests GOAT can climb to first over the weekend.
Cons
- Word of mouth will likely be the deciding factor on who will win this weekend, and can cause all type of chaos on the order of the Top 3. If that’s the case, then Goat certainly has the edge right now over Wuthering and I Can Only Imagine.
2. Wuthering Heights
Warner Bros. | Week 2
Weekend Range: $15M – $20M
Pros
- Warner Bros.’ period romance Wuthering Heights lit a fire at the Valentine’s box office, taking in $32.8M in its #1 opening salvo. This marked a huge win for director Emerald Fennell, star/producer Margot Robbie, and emerging star Jacob Elordi, once again proving that WB can make challenging material palatable in the age of IP.
Cons
- Ominously, Monday actuals shaved off $2M from Sunday projections. Still, the movie may have enough date movie mojo to win another round, although mixed reviews and a “B” CinemaScore could prove a cold shower for the sexy proceedings. A steep drop 39% drop in showtimes heading into Week 2 suggests a deep slide, with the film angling to play in the bottom half of our forecast.
3. I Can Only Imagine 2
Lionsgate | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $10M – $15M
Pros
- Lionsgate is delivering the faith-based sequel I Can Only Imagine 2, the follow-up to 2018’s $83.4M domestic grosser based on the life story of Bart Millard of MercyMe. Kingdom Story Company could take advantage of an otherwise holdover-heavy frame where the only other major new competish is 20th Century’s horror programmer Psycho Killer.
Cons
- Kingdom Story Company has had a more spotty track record than its faith-based rival Angel Studios, and the I Can Only Imagine sequel could go the way of their 2023 hit Jesus Revolution ($15.88M opening/$52.1M domestic total) or softer 2024 performer Ordinary Angels ($6.1M opening/$19.17M domestic total), both of which debuted in this same exact February corridor. Early Rotten Tomatoes reviews are leaning neg, but this audience is always good for an “A” CinemaScore.
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