The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | October 18 – 20, 2024
Week 42 | October 18 – 20, 2024 | Top 10 Forecast: $40 – $60M
1. Smile 2
Paramount Pictures | NEW
Weekend Range: $15M – $20M
Showtime Marketshare: 16%
Pros
- That viral Smile promotion campaign is back, with the Paramount Pictures team duplicating their baseball game plants from the last film earlier this week. Given that Paramount has much bigger marketing capital than Terrifier 3‘s Cineverse we don’t expect too much competition from Art the Clown. With an 86% critical rating on Rotten Tomatoes, Smile 2 should be one of the higher horror performers of the year when it debuts on 3500 screens, including an opening night fan event for Thursday previews with a pre-taped Naomi Scott intro.
- While Terrifier 3 has only reported from two foreign territories ($1.8M from UK and Australia), Smile 2 will get a big boost from its global debut in 62 markets. If anything, Smile 2 has a slightly wider appeal and more accessible R-rating, with the 2022 original having boasted a $22.6M debut frame with steady holds under -50% over its succeeding six weekends. The first Smile ultimately amassed $105.9M domestic and $217M globally, and this new one could have a comparable performance that will solidify its standing as a dependable horror franchise.
Cons
- Our panel was initially projecting a stronger performance that could go into the $30M range, but after lagging pre-sales we’ve lowered our forecast to account for a more muted debut that will come under the original’s $22M bow. Like Terrifier 3, Smile 2 had the potential to piggyback off a more robust Joker-driven box office as it even features Ray Nicholson, son of quintessential Joker actor Jack Nicholson. With overall box office last weekend down -47.2% vs 2023, we can also expect a big year-over-year dip during week 42 with no major tentpole to anchor it.
2. Terrifier 3
Cineverse | Week 2
Weekend Range: $7M – $10M
Showtime Marketshare: 7%
Pros
- In a case of right place/right time, the wide launch of Terrifier 3 was probably intended from the outset as counter-programming against a predicted Joker: Folie à Deux juggernaut. Instead, it wound up filling the void left in the wake of that DC film sinking like the Titanic, with the killer clown flick debuting to $18.9M in Monday actuals (initial estimates said $18.2M). Not only was that above even the highest estimates, but it did that without a rating and sporting one of the lowest P&A spends for a #1 movie in recent memory. After that over-performance for the ages, now it’s all about who else wants to jump on the bandwagon. Word of mouth and #1 movie momentum could help cushion a heavy drop this weekend, but the hard work already paid off in its first frame: the movie reportedly cost around $2M—everything that comes on the heels of its $18M bow just adds to its success.
Cons
- With competition for the same gore-starved audience, we’re looking at a likely -50%+ drop this weekend. Even if it can hack it and hold stronger, there doesn’t seem to be a way for it to stay on top. Distributor Cineverse owns the Bloody Disgusting brand and leveraged that in their targeted marketing approach, but much of that niche gorehound audience was likely tapped in the first frame. Going up against the similarly blood-drenched Smile 2 means too much cannibalization of the horror demo.
3. The Wild Robot
Universal | Week 4
Weekend Range: $6M – $10M
Showtime Marketshare: 11%
Pros
- Universal and Dreamworks’ animated pic The Wild Robot continues to post terrific holds, with only -26% last weekend. It even bested Terrifier 3 over the Columbus Day holiday Monday ($3.5M to $2.59M). Domestic cume is at $87.7M with $152.8M globally, although the budget was a frugal $80M. With two more books in the series to adapt it now has a sequel in development, despite not yet having crossed $100M domestically, although it should pass the century mark by Sunday.
Cons
- Great holds and a solid performance for this title are, unfortunately, no match for Universal’s Premium VOD pipeline, with the movie becoming available for purchase at home this week after less than a month in theaters. Having secured the #2 spot last frame, this would’ve been an easy contender to hold that spot if it wasn’t available on streaming. If 32 days seemed like a short window for Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, then losing theatrical exclusivity after three weekends on Wild Robot, a title that’s holding well at cinemas, is a major disappointment for exhibitors. Even Dreamworks’ Kung Fu Panda 4 got 32 days before hitting PVOD, but that title did much greater upfront business. Wild Robot was showing solid staying power at the box office, and could definitely have used another few weeks to keep nurturing its theatrical play.
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