The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | April 17 – 19, 2026
Week 16 | April 17 – 19, 2026
1. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
Universal/Illumination | Week 3
Weekend Range: $35 – $45M
Pros
- Universal and Illumination’s The Super Mario Galaxy Movie returned to the top in its sophomore frame, earning $68M (one million below Sunday estimates) for a -48% drop from Frame 1. Due to a lack of four-quadrant competition it shall remain the King Koopa of the box office for a third round, although it will likely be knocked off the throne next week when Michael debuts with possibly the biggest music biopic opening ever.
Cons
- Our forecasting panel has Super Mario Galaxy likely notching another -50% drop for Frame 3, and although it is lacking the staying power of the first movie—which dropped -35.1% in Frame 3 for $59.9M—the film is still doing very well. As of now it sits at $310.1M domestic ($56M below the first at this point in time) and $631.5M global, likely to cross a billion or close to it a’la last year’s A Minecraft Movie, which earned $960.38M worldwide and which Galaxy is currently pacing ahead of at this point ($296.79M on day 13).
2. Lee Cronin’s The Mummy
Warner Bros. | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $17M – $22M
Pros
- Warner Bros./New Line is uniting horror powerhouse James Wan (Atomic Monster) and Jason Blum (Blumhouse) to deliver a gory, R-rated take on the shambling monster in Lee Cronin’s The Mummy. This time the filmmakers are taking a more contained domestic route about a little girl kidnapped and then returned “alive” 8-years-later. The decision to brand this with writer/director Cronin’s name above the title was likely done to make it distinct from Universal’s ongoing franchise with Brendan Fraser, but it may only stoke confusion since this is just the third feature from the Irish helmer, behind his debut The Hole in the Ground in 2019 and Evil Dead Rise ($67.2M domestic) in 2023. For more, read our interview with director Lee Cronin here: Exhuming Terror: Writer/Director Lee Cronin Unwraps The Mummy
Cons
- It would be a little unfair to comp this to 2017’s The Mummy since that was a big budget summer tentpole starring Tom Cruise, but it still had a weak #2 opening at $31.6M before sinking like a stone at $80.2M domestic. Our panel sees this new Mummy coming in somewhere between the last two Blumhouse revamps of classic monsters, 2020’s The Invisible Man ($28.2M opening, $70.4M domestic) and 2025’s The Wolf Man ($10.89M opening, $20.7M domestic). Early reactions almost uniformly call the movie “gross” or “disgusting,” which could lead to backlash in the word-of-mouth department.
3. Project Hail Mary
Amazon/MGM | Week 4
Weekend Range: $13M – $18M
Pros
- Amazon/MGM’s victory parade for Project Hail Mary continues as the sci-fi hit recorded its lowest drop yet in Frame 3 at $24.1M (-24%), with domestic total now at $258.1M. That officially passes The LEGO Movie ($257.96M) as Phil Lord and Chris Miller’s biggest directorial success. Globally the movie has passed the half-billion benchmark with $512.1M, on its way to surpassing last year’s The Fantastic Four: First Steps ($521.85M) while sitting at #3 on the 2026 worldwide chart.
Cons
- The next remotely big sci-fi-ish event movie on the calendar is Mortal Kombat II on May 8, and even that may have little crossover with Project Hail Mary. This movie is proving that if you make something distinct enough that works then there is no competition. The next challenge remains if the movie can leg it out past $300M (likely) and $700M worldwide (also likely).
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