The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | March 14 – 16, 2025
Week 11 | March 14 – 16, 2025
1. Mickey 17
Warner Bros. | Week 2
Weekend Range: $7M – $10M
Showtime Market Share: 11%
Pros
- Warner Bros.’ big sci-fi gamble Mickey 17 managed to open on par with industry expectations at $19M, which in itself is a minor victory during a very slow March. Over this extended dry spell we expect the overall forthcoming box office frame to once again fall well below this time last year when Kung Fu Panda 4 and Dune: Part Two ruled theaters. However, that absence of tentpoles gives a quirky original like Mickey 17 a vacuum to fill with its star power and Oscar pedigree via Parasite director Bong Joon-ho. PostTrak exit polls gave the movie an encouraging 4 stars and a 63% definite recommend, which may be reflected if the percentage drop this frame winds up being under 50%.
Cons
- Despite this picture doing moderately well for an early spring release, as well as being a perfect placeholder for an industry low on blockbuster titles, there’s still the whole budget thing. Mickey 17 has earned $54.6M globally so far, but the production costs alone (disregarding P&A) are well north of $100M. Odds for it to reach theatrical breakeven are not great. Having also sunk a fortune into their upcoming Leonardo DiCaprio starrer One Battle After Another (from PT Anderson, who’s lifetime filmography has made $170M domestic), Warners may be playing the Red One game of using theatrical as a marketing tool for these original movies’ eventual debut on Max.
2. Novocaine
Paramount Pictures | New
Weekend Range: $7M – $10M
Showtime Market Share: 14%
Pros
- Paramount is giving their wild card acting movie Novocaine the red carpet rollout this weekend in 3,300 domestic locations. Starring Jack Quaid as an average hero whose medical superpower is he can’t feel pain, the comedic high concept hails from indie director team Dan Berk and Robert Olsen. Critical has been so encouraging (88% on Rotten Tomatoes) that the studio held word-of-mouth screenings in 1200 theaters on March 8. While we’re giving the weekend to Mickey 17, it can easily go either way. Novocaine currently has a significant lead in terms of showtimes, besting all titles in the United States with 18% of the total market share. This one has sleeper potential.
Cons
- One drawback is the Hard-“R” gore factor, which may have hurt Neon’s The Monkey recently. A similar comp would be the 2006 Jason Statham action comedy Crank, whose premise of a hero who needs to keep his adrenaline up to stay alive resulted in a $27.8M domestic performance. There are also a few other openers that could spell trouble to Novocaine, with A24’s poorly-reviewed thriller Opus as well as the Ketchup release of WB’s orphaned animated film The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie. Despite positive notices for the latter, we expect both to fall outside the Top 3 with single-digit debuts due to limited marketing support.
3. Black Bag
Focus Features | New
Weekend Range: $6M – $8M
Showtime Market Share: 9%
Pros
- You’ve got to hand it to Universal/Focus for taking the plunge on a mid-budget throwback spy thriller squarely aimed at the older quadrant. Black Bag has Oscar-caliber talent in front of (Cate Blanchett, Michael Fassbender) and behind the camera (Steven Soderbergh, in this case literally since he’s also the DP). Then you have the script from David Koepp, one of the most clockwork mainstream screenwriters in the game who also happened to pen the first Mission: Impossible. Over a decade ago Focus Features managed to turn the similarly character-oriented/action-lite Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy into a modest Oscar-nominated hit ($81.4M WW), although that had the benefit of being based on an iconic John le Carré novel. Reviews for Black Bag are superlative at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes, although positive notices couldn’t help drive ticket sales to the director’s prior 2025 release, Presence.
Cons
- The streets of the 2020’s are littered with the corpses of original spy thrillers that did not work at the box office: The Rhythm Section, Ava, The Courier, Tenet. Even more comedic espionage films like Argylle or My Spy did not connect. This is partly due to the fact that every other major movie in this genre that’s not James Bond or Ethan Hunt has gone to streaming (The Gray Man, Without Remorse, Red Notice). Without the pyrotechnics of a franchise budget, Black Bag may over index with the 35+ audience but with very little appeal in quadrants beyond, especially with two middle aged leads and your dad’s James Bond (Pearce Brosnan) in a co-starring role. Even Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy only did $24.1M here in the states, so hopefully Black Bag can mortgage its largely European cast into bigger numbers overseas since we’re looking at an under-$10M debut in line with Soderbergh’s 2012 spy thriller Haywire ($8.4M opening/$18.9M domestic total).
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