The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | March 20 – 22, 2026
Week 12 | March 20 – 22, 2026
1. Project Hail Mary
Amazon/MGM | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $70M – $78M
Showtime Marketshare: 25%
Pros
- For an original, albeit one based on a best-selling novel, Amazon/MGM’s Project Hail Mary is as attractive a package for moviegoers as you can get. It has a charismatic star in Ryan Gosling, well-liked directors in Phil Lord and Chris Miller (The LEGO Movie, 21 Jump Street), and the familiarity of being based on a hit book by Andy Weir, author of The Martian. From our forecasting panels’ vantage point, this one has a good shot at becoming the biggest opening weekend of the year, looking to carry us through the end of Q1 and potentially finishing its domestic run around $200M. The dazzling 95% critical rating on Rotten Tomatoes is another good omen of things to come.
Cons
- Although he has been a champ on the promotional circuit for Project Hail Mary, it is worth noting that Ryan Gosling is a strange animal when it comes to the box office. With the $636M Barbie being the exception that proves the rule (the movie was not called Ken), most of Gosling’s leading turns have stubbornly underperformed $50M domestically (Gangster Squad, First Man, The Nice Guys, etc.). Bigger tentpoles like Blade Runner 2049 and The Fall Guy did around $92M, which was inadequate for the budgets involved. With next year’s Star Wars: Starfighter the franchise is unquestionably the star, so Project Hail Mary is something of a Hail Mary pass for Gosling as a viable draw for a mega budget movie like this. Like The Martian ($228.4M domestic/$630.16M WW) was for Matt Damon, the story of a one-man space mission to save the world makes it very much an all-eyes-on-Gosling affair.
2. Hoppers
Pixar | Week 3
Weekend Range: $15M – $20M
Showtime Marketshare: 13%
Pros
- Disney/Pixar’s Hoppers held extremely well in its second frame with $28.66M, proving the time-tested Pixar formula of good product leads to positive word-of-mouth, which makes it a safe haven for the family movie dollar. We can see the movie having an even smaller percentage drop this weekend since Project Hail Mary is probably not going to be a huge draw for the under-12 crowd. Ditto for the R-rated Ready or Not 2: Here I Come.
Cons
- With the current domestic total on Hoppers past the $90M mark, it will certainly be over the $100M milestone by -if not before- the weekend. The downside is that the movie’s domestic legs are not yet translating into the foreign overperformance of Pixar’s original Elemental ($154.4M domestic/$496.4M global). With more international territories yet to bow, including crown jewel China, there could be a spike overseas, but nothing that can make up for a domestic shortfall, since Hoppers is performing more like The Good Dinosaur than Inside Out. The jury is still out if we can effectively call this one a hit or not for Disney.
3. Reminders of Him
Universal | Week 2
Weekend Range: $10M – $15M
Showtime Marketshare: 10%
Pros
- Universal’s 81% female-driven romance Reminders of Him opened to a solid $17.97M (below $18.25M Sunday estimates), which was on the high end of our expectations. Our panel expects the movie to leg it out in a big way with a second frame under (and possibly well under) a -50% drop. CinemaScore was a “B,” indicating a somewhat muted response, but certainly not muted enough to discourage those who did not come last weekend.
Cons
- As far as Colleen Hoover adaptations go, this one is currently landing somewhere between the stratospheric success of It Ends With Us and the so-so performer Regretting You. As far as building the Hoover brand, it will not be until the third or fourth frame that we will be able to effectively judge the performance here, but for the romance genre in the theatrical sphere this has been solid enough. Ryan Gosling’s accessible hunk status could siphon some of the audience for this one.
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