The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | March 27 – 29, 2026
Week 13 | March 27 – 29, 2026
1. Project Hail Mary
Amazon/MGM | Week 2
Weekend Range: $40M – $50M
Showtime Marketshare: 20%
Pros
- Amazon/MGM’s Project Hail Mary took in $80.5M in its first frame (no change from Sunday estimates), and proved to be that rare unicorn: an non-IP big budget sci-fi home run with critics, audiences, and at the box office. Great word of mouth should provide a solid hold for the sophomore weekend, with no major new competition and the kind of momentum most studios only dream of, especially in Q1.
Cons
- Project Hail Mary‘s one big blind spot is within the younger quadrants, i.e. kids and teenagers of both sexes. Despite a PG-13 rating, the science-heavy outer space milieu that leans more Interstellar than Star Wars pulled only 6% of 13-17’s, while under-12 audiences were so negligible their attendance was not reported by Amazon. Fortunately, that’s where having viable family movies like Hoppers and next week’s Super Mario Galaxy comes in, since parents and kids can branch off. It also helps when the two other biggest movies in the market for Frames 2 and 3 do not have crossover appeal with Hail Mary.
2. Hoppers
Pixar | Week 4
Weekend Range: $9M – $12M
Showtime Marketshare: 11%
Pros
- In terms of the family demo, it’s clear skies for Hoppers until Mario opens next week, showing great domestic positioning on the schedule for an overall solid run, even if it did not bust any big Pixar records. Again, the binary appeal of Hail Mary vs Hoppers in terms of ticket decision benefits both movies. Right now domestic and international gross are neck-and-neck in the $122M region, with $243.8M WW.
Cons
- Hoppers‘ China opening ($9.3M) topped the box office in that market, where it is competing with Project Hail Mary ($6.9M) and Pegasus 3 ($5.7M). That’s not far from Inside Out 2‘s Middle Kingdom bow of $10M, but the endgame outlook for the latest Pixar release is likely in the ballpark of or under Cars 3 ($152.9M domestic/$383.9M WW), which in its time was considered a disappointment. Still, like Cars, Hoppers will likely generate enough earnings across ancillary markets to justify its existence.
3. They Will Kill You
Warner Bros. | New
Opening Weekend Range: $5M – $7M
Showtime Marketshare: 10%
Pros
- With a heightened tone and similar “hunter-becomes-the-hunted” scenario, They Will Kill You appears to be a solid combo of Ready or Not and The Raid. Zazie Beetz plays a woman who applies to be a maid at an apartment complex where she is expected to be a sacrificial offering… until the tenants have to go on the defensive. The action/horror/comedy hybrid picked a strange time to come out given the similarly-themed Ready or Not 2: Here I Come just came out, although Rotten Tomatoes critical is currently a solid 77%.
Cons
- Although mainly known for Emmy-nominated TV work (Atlanta) and supporting roles (Joker, Deadpool 2), They Will Kill You is the most high-profile theatrical lead to-date for actress Zazie Beetz. Although certainly showing her action bonafides in movies like Bullet Train, she is an unknown quantity when it comes to opening a picture herself. Warner Bros. scheduled some of their misfires in Q1 last year, and it looks like this year (barring Wuthering Heights) they did the same, i.e. The Bride! We’re expecting a very modest finish here, especially since the genre hybrid is neither fish nor fowl in terms of marketability.
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