The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | October 24 – 26, 2025
Week 43 | October 24 – 26, 2025
1. Regretting You
Paramount Pictures | NEW
Weekend Range: $17M – $22M
Pros
- Paramount is riding the coattails of last year’s massive success of It Ends With Us ($148.5M domestic/$349.7M global) by adapting another one of author Colleen Hoover’s novels, Regretting You. The story revolves around the fallout of lead character Morgan (Allison Williams) discovering her husband was having an affair with her sister after the two of them are killed in a car crash together. The B-plot focuses on Morgan’s daughter Clara (Mckenna Grace) and her blossoming high school romance with Miller (Mason Thames). The film hails from Josh Boone, who directed the hit 2014 drama The Fault in Our Stars ($124.87M domestic/$307.16M global), so the pedigree is there for an enormous female ticket buyer smash.
Cons
- The very public tabloid fallout over It Ends With Us and its leads may not have engendered additional goodwill towards the Hoover brand. The only romantic movie to make a blip on the radar so far this year was Materialists, which generated a mere $36.5M domestic but over $100M globally. Meanwhile, the Rotten Tomatoes critical on Regretting You is currently at 17% Rotten, which doesn’t bode well for word-of-mouth. Still, if the movie sticks the landing it will be a rare two #1 movies back-to-back for Mason Thames after Black Phone 2‘s success.
2. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
20th Century Studios | NEW
Weekend Range: $15M – $20M
Pros
- Two-time Emmy-winner Jeremy Allen White of TV’s The Bear takes his shot at Oscar glory with Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, a biopic of The Boss from Crazy Heart director Scott Cooper. Disney’s Searchlight had great success handling last year’s music legend biopic A Complete Unknown ($140.5M WW), and the studio is clearly looking to replicate that with this story of Springsteen recording his iconic Nebraska album. There is added synergy with the simultaneous timed-release of the album Nebraska ’82: Expanded Edition, which includes the electric demos of the songs. Our panel expects Springsteen to deliver an opening weekend in the bottom half of this range, with a potential debut ceiling of $20M.
Cons
- Reviews are currently hovering at a so-so 69% on RT critical, compared to 82% for A Complete Unknown. It also helped that the Bob Dylan biopic had legit movie star Timothée Chalamet, whereas White has yet to prove himself a draw. Springsteen has also proven to be a divisive political lightning rod lately, which may put some viewers off the movie… or encourage others to attend. The Nebraska album is also one of the singer/songwriter’s bleaker albums compared to the likes of Born in the USA.
3. Black Phone 2
Universal Pictures | Week 2
Weekend Range: $10M – $14M
Pros
- Following a profound string of box office misses, Blumhouse put itself back in the horror game by clocking in a $27.3M opening for Black Phone 2, nearly a million ahead of Sunday estimates and $3.7M beyond the 2022 original’s debut. Reviews were also solid at 74% Certified Fresh on RT along with an 85% audience score. The Grabber character has clearly left an indelible impression among both horror fans and mainstream audiences.
Cons
- Despite no true horror competition, Black Phone 2 is expected to finish third behind the two studio dramas opening this week, with a drop well above -50%. The Scott Derrickson-helmed sequel was male-leaning at 53%, so its possible male audiences boost the film in its sophomore frame. This movie also has the advantage of youth appeal over Springsteen.
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