The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | March 28 – 30, 2025
Week 13 | March 28 – 30, 2025
1. Snow White
Walt Disney Pictures | Week 2
Weekend Range: $17M – $25M
Pros
- Yes, that $42.2M opening (down from $43M estimates) for Disney’s Snow White is a low point for the Mouse House translating their animated classics into live-action theatricals. However, as with last year’s Mufasa: The Lion King, the end of this particular fairy tale hasn’t been written yet. There’s still one more weekend for this title to dominate before A Minecraft Movie gobbles up family ticket money. Add to that the “A-” CinemaScore from women and audiences under 18, which suggests the movie could hold below -50%. We’re looking toward the second frame performance of last year’s Ghosbusters: Frozen Kingdom ($15.57M, -65%) and 2019’s Dumbo ($18.2M, -60%) as benchmarks in predicting how well the fairest of them all will hold at the top this weekend.
Cons
- Snow White‘s lack of sizzle combined with a vacuum of splashy product in theaters will likely result in another massive year-over-year drop from Easter Weekend 2024 where Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire drove the 3-Day to nearly $140M. Disney misplayed its hand by not allowing press coverage of the Snow White premieres, turning the PR headaches around the film into the story instead of the film itself. Even though they already have cameras rolling on a live-action Moana, the era of Disney using their back catalogue as an ATM may be winding down… unless Memorial Day Weekend’s live-action Lilo & Stitch can go the distance.
2. Death of a Unicorn
A24 | NEW
Weekend Range: $10M – $15M
Pros
- A24 is back in their ultra quirky lane with big above-the-title stars (Paul Rudd, Jenna Ortega) and a high concept simple enough to be summarized in the title and crazy enough to catch on with hipster crowds. Solid SXSW buzz for Death of a Unicorn should give it an edge over A Working Man, although overall reviews are mixed-to-negative at a current 59% on RT. This is the best hope for a date movie right now, although the Substance-esque gore-factor could prove a turnoff. With a front-loaded wide release, hopefully the studio can take the money and run.
Cons
- Star Jenna Ortega has become a star thanks to leveraging roles in already-established franchises (Scream, Beetlejuice, Addams Family), so Death of a Unicorn will be a real test of her newfound pull in an original concept. Even though he’s well established via the Marvel and Judd Apatow films, Paul Rudd has had far too many misses (They Came Together, Wanderlust, How Do You Know?) to be considered a sure bet. Although A24 has had great success with offbeat films like Everything Everywhere All at Once or Lady Bird, other stabs at comedy or satire have had more muted box office (Bodies Bodies Bodies, Swiss Army Man, Under the Silver Lake). Their specialty is much more in the drama or horror department.
3. A Working Man
Amazon/MGM | NEW
Weekend Range: $10M – $15M
Pros
- Action icon Jason Statham is ready to put the beatdown on human trafficking with A Working Man, his second collaboration with director David Ayer after last year’s sleeper The Beekeeper. As with 2013’s Statham vehicle Homefront, the script is provided by one Sylvester Stallone… even though he’s not in the film. Older guys fighting human traffickers has become a popular trope in recent years, both theatrically (Sound of Freedom, Rambo: Last Blood) and in numerous downmarket direct-to-video features. Heck, Jason Statham made his name on the human trafficking action franchise The Transporter. While reviews are not yet in, early reactions from the action-positive crowd were happy to see Statham take up his mighty hammer. If it works, Statham will have yet another franchise to add to his already prolific dance card (The Meg, The Mechanic, Expendables, Crank, Fast & Furious, etc).
Cons
- A Working Man feels a lot like a January movie. Revenge-o-matic programmers with “dad action” stars are typically fodder for the fall or winter doldrums à la The Beekeeper, which did quite well for itself during its January 2024 slot ($66.2M domestic/$152.4M global). Perhaps sensing a void, Amazon may have chosen this spring frame as counter-programming to the perceived “problem movie” Snow White, and that could pay off. Unfortunately it will have to rated-R spar with Death of a Unicorn, but we wager the audience demographics will be different enough for both films. Movies of this ilk are typically more the realm of studios like Lionsgate, and—with the exception of Beekeeper and 2021’s Statham-starrer Wrath of Man ($27.46M domestic)—MGM has seen much of their big action fare like Samaritan and Road House go directly to Amazon Prime. In that sense, it’s a refreshing change of pace and it’ll be interesting if the company can make a go of cornering the dad action market theatrically.
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