The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | September 20 – 22, 2024
Week 38 | September 20 – 22, 2024
Top 10 3-Day Range | Weekend 38, 2024: $65M — $95M
1. Transformers One
Paramount Pictures | NEW
Weekend Range: $25M – $35M
Showtime Marketshare: 25%
Pros
- Since launching four Presidents ago (in 2007), Paramount’s Transformers franchise has brought in an impressive $5.28 billion in ticket sales globally. That’s not even a drop in the bucket when it comes to merchandise sales (calculated near at least $7 billion a decade ago) as well as home video revenue, animated series, and Universal Studios’ Transformers 3D ride. With ticket sales for the main line of movies dropping precipitously in the last ten years, the studio is sprinkling a little Pixar magic into the gear works by hiring Toy Story 4 director Josh Cooley to helm Transformers One, the first fully-animated theatrical Transformers feature since 1986’s 2D The Transformers: The Movie. A prequel focusing on the early, pre-transforming days of Optimus Prime (Chris Hemsworth) and Megatron (Brian Tyree Henry), the animation was provided by visual effects industry leader Industrial Light and Magic, who previously animated the Oscar-winning Rango. Unlike the often brutal smash-’em-ups helmed by master of mayhem Michael Bay, this one leans much more kid-friendly, which is probably music to the ears of production partner Hasbro, who want this to be a gateway drug to the brand for younger viewers/toy buyers.
- While being more colorful and toyetic than the live-action movies, Transformers One has another ace up its sleeve: celebrities. Because this is a prequel taking place long before the events of previous films, longtime Optimus Prime voice artist Peter Cullen has been replaced by MCU star Chris Hemsworth, a far greater coup for the promo circuit. Other big names lending their vocals to the Cybertron residents include Brian Tyree Henry, Scarlett Johansson, Keegan-Michael Key, Steve Buscemi, Laurence Fishburne, and Jon Hamm. Should the animated films continue to move forward (Transformers Two, Transformers Three, etc) all these talents will be huge assets. Reviews for the film are also fairly glowing, especially for this franchise. The current Rotten Tomatoes outlook is 90%, tied with Bumblebee for the highest critical score ever for a Transformers movie. Other live-action entries have all scored Rotten, between 57% and 16%. Thus, our panel is forecasting a low opening in the $30M range, though not at the rock bottom of Bumblebee‘s $21.6M back in 2018.
Cons
There is no doubt that Transformers is a franchise on the wane, box office-wise. Domestically, the series reached its apex 15-years ago with Revenge of the Fallen -the critically reviled second film- while Age of Extinction ($1,104B) was the last one to cross the billion dollar landmark globally over a decade ago. Here’s an opening/domestic performance chart for comparison…
- Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (2009) – $108.9M opening/$402.1M cume
- Transformers: Age of Extinction (2014) – $100M opening/$245.4M cume
- Transformers: Dark of the Moon (2011) – $97.8M opening/$352.3M cume
- Transformers (2007) – $70.5M opening/$319.2M cume
- Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (2023) – $61M opening/$157.3M cume
- Transformers: The Last Knight (2017) – $44.6M opening/$130.1M cume
- Bumblebee (2018) – $21.6M opening/$127.1M cume
The most recent live-action entry, last year’s Rise of the Beasts, did manage to outdo its two predecessors domestically, but worldwide it stands as the lowest grosser of the bunch ($439.2M). Transformers One is a clear attempt to aim the franchise more at its target demo, children who play with toys, although the last time the franchise went more kiddie with the spin-off Bumblebee it saw the lowest domestic returns of all seven entries. If Transformers can thrive as an animated franchise that will be good news for Paramount, as watching these rock ’em sock ’em robots pound each other to oblivion near real humans has lost much of its novelty for audiences. It’s a cinch that the studio is not thrilled about Dreamworks’ animated The Wild Robot coming to theaters one week later, and with even better reviews (Rotten Tomatoes currently has the movie at 100%).
2. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Warner Bros. | Week 3
Weekend Range: $25M – $30M
Showtime Marketshare: 17%
Pros
- Tim Burton’s goth-friendly sequel Beetlejuice Beetlejuice currently stands at a $195.4M domestic cume, which means we are only days away from the movie crossing the $200M mark. It also has the potential to overtake Transformers One if that movie underperforms. Expect the global to swim past $300M this weekend as well, with the whole thing likely well into profitability right now for Warner Bros. Pictures. It also marks a welcome return-to-form for the Warners/Burton combo, as the quirky director has made 8 of his 20 feature films for the studio, but hadn’t worked there since Dark Shadows in 2012. Hopefully, this leads to many more fruitful collaborations in the years to come.
Cons
- We’re looking at yet another halving of the previous frame’s gross in this third go-around as the nostalgia factor begins to wear off for the Beetlejuice brand. It’s also hard to ignore how weak the overseas grosses are ($76.5M) compared to domestic, even though, at this point, the picture is doing fine for the budget, reported to be around $100M. Perhaps the script’s humor just isn’t translating overseas? It’s a particular head-scratcher that the movie is not performing better in Italy, which is having a box office rebound this year. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice has only taken in $3.5M at the Italian box office despite Monica Bellucci’s front-and-center and even a portion of the movie spoken in Italian.
3. Never Let Go
Lionsgate | NEW
Weekend Range: $4M – $8M
Showtime Marketshare: 8%
Pros
- Oscar-winner Halle Berry leads this survival horror entry from French helmer Alexandre Aja (Crawl), which involves a mother and her two young twin boys being terrorized by an evil within the woods. Despite a string of failures in the action arena, Lionsgate has done decently with their two horror pictures this year, with The Strangers: Chapter 1 at $35.2M and Imaginary at $28M. So far, the reviews have been decent, with 72% on Rotten Tomatoes, and if allowing reviews to post early wasn’t enough of a sign of confidence, it is set to premiere at Fantastic Fest tomorrow. Never Let Go could over-index if word of mouth is good enough coming out of the festival to bring the genre fans, but it could just as easily become another horror casualty of 2024.
Cons
- The Lionsgate factor cannot be overstated, with the studio struggling with their slate over the last month (Borderlands, The Crow, The Killer’s Game). Halle Berry herself is a mixed bag when it comes to bankability, with her strongest performers tending to be movies where she supports (Kingsman, John Wick, X-Men, etc). Her starring performances of late have been relegated to theatrical duds (Moonfall, Kings) or Netflix streaming entries (The Union, Bruised). Her last solo movie that did well enough was 2017’s indie thriller Kidnap ($30.7M). While trailers make this look like a strong portrayal from Berry, the overall isolated woodsy supernatural milieu is perhaps a little too reminiscent of recent dud The Watchers ($19M domestic).
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