The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | May 2 – 4, 2025
Week 18 | May 2 – 4, 2025
1. Thunderbolts*
Marvel Studios | NEW
Weekend Range: $80M – $90M
Showtime Marketshare: 33%
Pros
- The anti-hero team-up movie Thunderbolts* arrives while the MCU is still on shaky ground after the less-than-stellar reception of Captain America: Brave New World, which opened to a solid $88.8M back in February but lost traction in the ensuing weeks to cap off its run at $200M domestic. Unlike Brave New World‘s 48% critical rating, Thunderbolts* boasts an 88% aggregate on Rotten Tomatoes, which puts it on par with Doctor Strange (89%) and the middle two Captain America movies, The Winter Soldier and Civil War (both 90%). Of the MCU’s thirteen Phase 4 and 5 films, only Shang-Chi (92%) and Spider-Man: No Way Home (93%) have scored above 90% on RT. Our panel believes decent word-of-mouth, well-executed action set pieces, and more robust overall box office attendance will gift Thunderbolts* with a stronger theatrical run than Brave New World… even if the opening winds up being comparable. We expect an opening weekend in the low-to-mid $80M range, leaving room for the film to reach up to $90M in case word-of-mouth can spur ticket sales into Sunday.
Cons
- It’s almost being charitable to call this a B-squad movie, since characters like Hannah John-Kamen’s Ghost or Wyatt Russell’s U.S. Agent have only been supporting players in more minor MCU offerings. Meanwhile, a bulk of the figures (Yelena Belova, Taskmaster, Red Guardian, Melina Vostokoff, Valentina) originated in 2021’s Black Widow which is one of the MCU’s lowest global grossers ($379.7M). You could argue that Brave New World had a stronger hand to play with fan favorite Anthony Mackie, plus the star power of Harrison Ford. However, Sebastian Stan’s Bucky Barnes has been with the MCU since 2011, and is a beloved figure among the fanbase. Florence Pugh’s super assassin Yelena has only made a couple of appearances, yet the actress herself has immense visibility from hits like Oppenheimer and Dune: Part Two. While Marvel has mined the more obscure corners of its comics universe to great success with films like Guardians of the Galaxy, Thunderbolts* has neither the novelty nor the kid-friendly appeal of that brand. If the film fails to connect with audiences at the outset, we could see this weekend finishing in the $70 – $80M range over its opening weekend.
2. Sinners
Warner Bros. | Week 3
Weekend Range: $16M – $22M
Showtime Marketshare: 13%
Pros
- Nobody was expecting such a ferocious second frame for writer/director Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, where it only made a -5% drop from opening weekend for $45.7M (up slightly from $45M Sunday estimates). That kind of hold hasn’t been seen in over 15 years, and never for an R-rated horror title. With that level of over-indexing we now expect this title to have a domestic theatrical life beyond $200M (currently $135.6M total), even as Thunderbolts* usurps the top spot and much of the ink being spilled. If Sinners once again goes beyond expectations in Frame 3, expect that to keep the movie in the conversation… Marvel or no Marvel.
Cons
- Thunderbolts* is likely to make a big dent in Sinners‘ fender, especially when it takes over many of the IMAX auditoriums that were responsible for over 22% of Frame 2’s haul. There’s also the issue of foreign sales drastically below domestic, with only $39.79M from overseas markets. With a $90M budget plus prints & advertising (literal pricy 35MM IMAX prints in this case), there could be a scenario where the movie barely eeks a profit for the studio even with killer North American numbers. Still, this is a title that’s already gone above and beyond what anyone expected, one that will have a long and lucrative shelf life for WB on PVOD and streaming. At $175.4M WW, the downside is negligible from here on out, and certainly none for theaters who continue to keep this one stocked.
3. A Minecraft Movie
Warner Bros. | Week 5
Weekend Range: $10M – $14M
Showtime Marketshare: 12%
Pros
- WB’s other cash cow A Minecraft Movie continues to perform nicely into its fifth frame, steadily halving its grosses week-to-week… but when you come from a $162.75M opening that’s the kind of half-life theaters like. It took in $22.7M last weekend, and we’re looking at another drop in the -50% region, although it could be more if kids and teens flock to Thunderbolts* in droves. A new set of official “Block Party Edition!” screenings on May 2 which encourage wild behavior in theater auditoriums could drive a stronger hold this weekend.
Cons
- Can it make a billion? That’s the only challenge Minecraft has to conquer before it enters the streaming sphere. Right now we’re at $817.5M globally. It took Moana 2 seven frames to cross the big B mark, while The Super Mario Bros. Movie did it in about four and Barbie took only three frames to crack $1 billion. The good news is -unlike Sinners– international has done even better than domestic, translating to $435M overseas vs $382.5M in North America. Frame 4 those markets did almost double ($38.1M) what the movie did here, so the short answer is yes, we’re probably looking at a billion, but it might take longer than Moana 2 and could require the studio to keep the movie in theaters past demand… if it’s worth the bragging rights.
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