Following in the footsteps of last week’s brief update, this latest tracking report offers a look at key factors motivating current forecasts for upcoming films alongside the new addition of Universal Pictures’ Beast, opening August 19.
PROS:
- DC League of Super-Pets continues to display some encouraging signs of family and fan appeal in the long run with relatively no competition coming its way until October and November. That could help generate very long legs at the box office.
- Bullet Train‘s first day of ticket sales have been respectable given its nature as a non-franchise pic, with particular strength in IMAX and premium formats.
- Beast has some potential with Idris Elba in the lead and notable trailer traction online. Given the lack of competition leading into Labor Day and beyond, positive word of mouth would go a long way toward staying power in a barren market.
CONS:
- As Minions: The Rise of Gru continues to perform well in its chase summer weekends, expectations for DC League of Super-Pets are reverting toward a more back-loaded run than previously forecast — presuming audience reception is strong.
- Beast will be going up against the third frame of Bullet Train, so if the latter develops strong word of mouth, that could hamper some theatrical interest for the Universal thriller.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 7/21/22)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 7/29/2022 | DC League of Super-Pets | $35,000,000 – $45,000,000 | -16% | $115,000,000 – $162,000,000 | -16% | Warner Bros. Pictures |
| 7/29/2022 | Vengeance | Focus Features | ||||
| 8/5/2022 | Bullet Train | $28,000,000 – $34,000,000 | $85,000,000 – $120,000,000 | Sony Pictures | ||
| 8/5/2022 | Easter Sunday | $12,000,000 – $17,000,000 | -9% | $40,000,000 – $63,000,000 | -9% | Universal Pictures |
| 8/12/2022 | Mack & Rita | $3,000,000 – $7,000,000 | $8,000,000 – $25,000,000 | Gravitas Ventures | ||
| 8/12/2022 | Summering | Bleecker Street Media | ||||
| 8/19/2022 | Beast | $9,000,000 – $14,000,000 | $28,000,000 – $48,000,000 | Universal Pictures |
All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available to clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.
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