Long Range Box Office Forecast: ARGYLLE and THE CHOSEN: SEASON 4 EPISODES 1 – 3

Photos courtesy Peter Mountain/Universal Pictures; The Chosen / Mike Kubeisy

This week’s report takes a first glance at February with two releases that hope to gain traction coming off a very slow first month of 2024.

Argylle

Universal Pictures & Apple Original Films

February 2, 2024

Opening Weekend Range: $20M-$30M
Domestic Total Range: $65M-$105M

PROS:

  • Matthew Vaughn has a solid track record with ensemble-driven, stylized action films, ranging from Kick-Ass to the first two Kingsman films and X-Men: First Class.
  • With an off weekend for football fans before the Super Bowl on February 11, competition for the film’s target male audience is minimal. That’s a compounded advantage with light January and February slates surrounding the release.

CONS:

  • Marketing has yet to ignite the kind of social buzz that preceded Vaughn’s Kingsman films, which may put more pressure on reviews and final trailer rotations in the weeks ahead.

The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 1 – 3

Fathom Events

February 2, 2024

Opening Weekend Range: $7M-$11M
Domestic Total Range: $11M-$18M

PROS:

  • The Chosen has proven to be a strong theatrical draw with episode premieres drawing faith-based audiences of the acclaimed series. The Season 3 premiere double feature earned $8.77 million on opening weekend in late 2021.
  • Angel Studios, likewise, continues to cement its box office drawing power and crowd-funding strategies among Christian communities with recent counter-programming successes such as His Only Son, After Death, The Shift and last summer’s blockbuster, Sound of Freedom. Their direct association with the franchise prior to this point is a notable strength for audience awareness.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 1/4/24)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week 4-Day (FSSM) Opening Low/High Range Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
1/12/2024 The Beekeeper $8,000,000 – $13,000,000   $9,000,000 – $15,000,000 $25,000,000 – $41,000,000   MGM
1/12/2024 The Book of Clarence $5,000,000 – $10,000,000   $5,750,000 – $11,500,000 $10,000,000 – $23,000,000   Sony Pictures
1/12/2024 Mean Girls $20,000,000 – $35,000,000   $23,000,000 – $40,000,000 $50,000,000 – $92,000,000   Paramount Pictures
1/12/2024 Soul           Disney / Pixar
1/19/2024 I.S.S. $2,000,000 – $7,000,000     $5,000,000 – $22,000,000   Bleecker Street
1/19/2024 Origin           NEON
1/26/2024 Miller’s Girl           Lionsgate
1/26/2024 Underdoggs           United Artists
1/26/2024 The Concierge           Sony / Crunchyroll
1/26/2024 Housekeeping for Beginners (Limited)           Focus Features
2/1/2024 The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 1 – 3 $7,000,000 – $11,000,000     $11,000,000 – $18,000,000   Fathom Events
2/2/2024 Argylle $20,000,000 – $30,000,000     $65,000,000 – $105,000,000   Universal Pictures / Apple Original Films
2/2/2024 Scrambled           Lionsgate
Photos courtesy Peter Mountain/Universal Pictures; The Chosen / Mike Kubeisy

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